Wed 27 Mar 2013, 13:12 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Even though the Euro and equities keep declining today, oil futures at ICE did not respond during morning trade. Selling pressure has increased due to the softer euro but still many spread betters cut their positions. This weighs on the WTI whereas Gasoil and Brent rise. Recently, market participants have increasingly bought WTI while selling Brent. The spread between the two crude oil contracts thus narrowed. Market fundamentals have hardly changed and so the Brent's rise is chiefly due to the reduction of bets on the spread (as described above). Ahead of the prolonged Easter-weekend, traders tend to cut their riskier assets.

After Monday's turbulent session market players Tuesday chose to stay on the sidelines at ICE and NYMEX. The bullish technical constellation made oil futures test their upward potential several times but in the early afternoon traders took some profits. Only the WTI renewedly remained steadier than the other contracts and so the spread between the US-crude and the Brent temporarily narrowed to almost 12 dollars. The gains at US-stock markets also bolstered oil prices whereas the softer euro prevented a too sharp rise. Economic data out of the USA provided mixed cues as some of them exceeded the forecasts and others disappointed expectations. In late US-trading optimism regarding the economic recovery prevailed, however. Dragged along by the gaining WTI contract and buoyed by the bullish technical situation and the steadier US equities, Brent and Gasoil also saw a moderate rise in the evening. With several resistance lines breached, futures settled near their intraday-highs. The Brent-WTI spread thus widened again levelling off slightly above 13 dollars.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 902.00 USD on Tuesday. This was 1.25 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 47,500 deals the traded volume was on average.

The stochastic indicator already gave a buying signal at the Brent and the Gasoil charts yesterday and remains bullish today. The more so, as the indicator has meanwhile also surpassed the 50%-line. At the WTI chart, the lines of the stochastic converge again leaving the indicator less bullish than yesterday morning. Given yesterday evening's upward reaction, a great deal of the bullish potential has already been spent. Even though the softer euro favors some profit taking and the RSI has lost its impact, the merely technical situation is still slightly bullish at ICE, thanks to the stochastic indicator.

U.S.

Nymex gaining: This morning oil futures at ICE and NYMEX consolidated on a high level. Given the slightly bullish technical situation there is but light profit taking after yesterday's price surge. The traded volume at NYMEX is below average for this time of day. Investors now closely watch the performance of European markets and wait for new cues from forex trading and European and US economic indicators. They will also focus on the data on US oil stockpiles from the DOE.

API's: Crude oil +3.7; distillates -1.9; gasoline -2.0 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +1.8%
DOE's; due out tonight
Forecasts: Crude oil + 0.8; distillates -1.1; gasoline -1.2 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 26-03)
380cst $614
180cst $663
MGO $991

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 26-03)
380cst $617
180cst $651
MGO $996

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

WTI is slowing, but gaining still with +$0.85. Paper for Apr is back up with 180cst +$6.95 and for 380cst +$6.75, and May contracts with 180cst +$6.70, 380st +$6.75. The cargo market is mixed, looking for direction with ifo 380 180cst +$0.94, and 380cst -$1.37 and MGO +$0.11.

The Singapore Fuel Oil Market dipped around -$1.0 during the Platts window yesterday. The Asian Fuel Oil cracks extended its weakness yesterday. Bunker demand were said to be mixed yesterday. The delivered bunker premiums were also higher yesterday around $8.25 above cargo prices yesterday.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $627
180 cst $633
MGO $905

Fujairah (delivered indications 27-03)

380cst $635
180cst $684
MGO $1020

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

In Rotterdam and Antwerp, some suppliers reduced premiums for the delivered LSFO fuel oil grades as supplier tanks were full of products. Barge avails are better then beginning of the week.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 610
(1.0 %) :$ 627
180cst: $ 633
(1.0 %):$ 659
MGO 0.1%S: $ 885

MGO  

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