Renewable methanol project pipeline growth decelerated in the first half of 2026, according to data published by GENA Solutions Oy (Green Energy Analytics), with the postponement of the International Maritime Organization's net-zero framework cited as a contributing factor.

GENA's Project Navigator Methanol tracked 284 renewable and low-carbon methanol projects as of the end of June 2026, representing 61.8 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cumulative capacity by 2031. The total includes 131 e-methanol projects with 24.7 MMT of capacity, 135 biomethanol projects with 25.9 MMT, and 18 low-carbon methanol projects accounting for 11.2 MMT.

The net increase in cumulative pipeline capacity averaged approximately 0.7 MMT per month in 2026, down from 1.1 MMT per month in 2025. According to GENA, the IMO's decision to postpone adoption of its net-zero framework in October 2025 has reduced expectations for methanol consumption in maritime applications over the medium term, and is one of the major factors behind the slowdown.

Five new projects were added to the tracker in June — two e-methanol and three biomethanol — while three frozen projects with a combined capacity of 660 kilotonnes per annum were removed. Among those excluded was Beaver Lake Renewable Energy's 500 kilotonnes per annum biomethanol project, which GENA describes as the only large-scale biomethanol project globally based on biomass gasification coupled with carbon capture and storage. Two frozen e-methanol projects were also dropped. Separately, one e-methanol project was reconfigured as a hybrid bio-e-methanol model combining biomass gasification and electrolysis.

Of the five new additions, four are located in Europe — in Spain, Portugal, and Finland — and one in China. Europe and China together account for 84% of the global renewable methanol project pipeline, according to GENA.

Aviation compensates for maritime weakness

While the maritime outlook has softened, the aviation sector has provided a partial counterweight. GENA now tracks 36 methanol-to-jet (MTJ) projects globally, with cumulative methanol consumption of more than 9 MMT at a 100% utilisation rate. The company cautions that only a portion of these projects is expected to reach operation and that average utilisation rates are likely to fall below 100%.

According to GENA, MTJ projects accounted for approximately two-thirds of renewable methanol pipeline growth over the past six months, spanning both integrated renewable methanol and MTJ projects and standalone methanol projects targeting supply to non-integrated MTJ facilities.

Operational capacity set to grow

Cumulative operational capacity at renewable methanol facilities, including mass-balance production, currently stands at around 0.9 MMT, according to GENA. The company expects three industrial-scale facilities to begin operations before the end of 2026 — one hybrid biomethanol facility and two e-methanol facilities — which would bring total operational capacity to up to 1.5 MMT.

Looking further ahead, GENA projects that global renewable methanol capacity could range from 6 MMT to 12 MMT by 2031, a wide band that reflects ongoing uncertainty around project progression rates and the regulatory environment.