Wed 22 Aug 2012, 15:41 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



After yesterday's price rally, oil prices have been rather calm this morning. Retreating equities have prompted investors at oil markets to take some profit. The Brent and the G.Oil have breached first supports, triggering more technical selling.

After a phase of consolidation on Monday, oil futures seemed to continue consolidating on Tuesday. In the morning, they traded firmly but within Monday's range. A regain of optimism among investors regarding the current negotiations with Greece has buoyed oil prices. Germany seems to be inclined to approve another package of financial aid for the indebted country. The euro has already breached several important resistance lines in the morning supporting the rise at oil markets. This development made oil futures at ICE and NYMEX exceed Monday's highs in the early afternoon which triggered more technical buying orders. Investors' risk appetite and the euro's sharp rise pushed oil prices to the highest levels since the beginning of May. Some market participants seized the price rally to take some profit in late trade, when the euro consolidated on a high level and US stocks slid. The API's data on US oil inventories, published at 10.30 p.m., have given oil futures another fillip, however. The unexpected draw in crude oil stocks strongly contrasted expectations and so oil futures renewedly climbed.

ICE Gasoil contract for September delivery settled at 988.75 dollars on Tuesday. This was 9.75 dollars above Monday's settlement. With some 51,500 contracts the traded volume was on average.

There are no new cues from the technical constellation, this morning. The lines of the stochastic indicator at ICE and at NYMEX charts are too close to be interpreted in a bearish or bullish way. Therefore technical analysts currently focus on the still intact up trends. In keeping with the motto "the trend is your friend" they assess the situation as slightly bullish, even though the markets are overbought.

U.S.

Nymex access easing: Oil futures have hardly changed in East-Asia and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. There has been some profit taking last night but the API's bullish data on US oil inventories prevented more significant downward movements. The traded volume is slightly below average. Market participants today eye the performance of stock and forex markets, US existing home sales and the FOMC's meeting minutes. At 4.30 p.m. the DOE is going to publish its weekly data on US oil inventories.

API's: Crude oil -6.0; distillates -1.0; gasoline +0.9 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.5%
DOE's; due out tonight
Forecasts: Crude oil +0.2; distillates +1.3; gasoline +0.8 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 21-8)

380cst $666
180cst $697
MGO $1010

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 21-8)

380cst $664
180cst $701
MGO $1020

Singapore (correct as per 14:30hrs LT-delivered indications)

Crude is slowing with WTI +$0.01. Singapore paper is more bullish, gaining with +$0.75 for 180cst and +$0.80 for 380cst for Sep, and for Oct 180 cst +$0.75 and 380cst +$0.80 with MGO contracts Sep +$0.33 and Oct +$0.33. The cargo market is slowing as well with 180cst -$0.14, 380cst -$0.69 and MGO -$0.18.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $670
180 cst $682
MGO $975

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA continues with the bullishness. Continuing loading delays up to three days are reported. With short cutter stocks underpinning the markets and a heavy maintenance programme for September with two important North Sea oilfields set for a one month closure. High premiums are charged for prompt enquiries.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 655
(1.0 %) :$ 720
180cst: $ 693
(1.0 %):$ 760
MGO 0.1%S: $975

MGO  

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