Maintenance and repair specialist
Goltens believes that "momentum is building" for scrubber retrofits, with COO
Roy Strand declaring that the firm has seen a "major uptick" in interest since the start of the year.
Prior to 2018, Goltens says it had been involved in several emissions control projects evaluating the retrofit of scrubbers, but that most were for cruise and ferry operators and ships that spend large amounts of time in Emission Control Areas (ECAs).
"For other operators, the retrofit projects involved lower cost piping system modifications and fuel oil cooler installations to allow vessels to periodically operate on [low-sulphur marine gas oil (MGO)] as required," he notes.
However, since the start of the year, Goltens says it has seen a much broader range of companies requesting scrubber retrofits, which has resulted in longer lead times for scrubber deliveries and increased competition to secure the services of some of the leading scrubber manufacturers.
According to industry estimates, fewer than
2,000 vessels could be fitted with scrubber systems by the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) sulphur cap implementation date in 2020. Forecasts on the future potential price differential between MGO and high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), meanwhile, have varied.
Discussing pricing, Goltens posits that "first movers" that install scrubbers early will be at a competitive advantage compared to their non-scrubber counterparts in the first few years after the sulphur cap implementation, and that they will able to charge "significant"
freight rate premiums based on the fuel savings associated with operating the vessel (compared to using distillates) - premiums that could enable a
quick payback on the initial scrubber investment.
And at that point, Strand agrees with Nordic bank SEB's assessment that "it will be
too profitable and too tempting not to install a scrubber in 2020".
