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Commentary

Brent closed last night at $64.95 down $0.54, WTI closed down $0.68 to $61.36. George Orwell once said: "During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act". However, I also feel it befitting of the current state of the oil market. We have been hovering around the $65/bbl mark on Brent for the best part of a month now. Quite why $65 has been chosen, I'm not sure. I can only imagine it's where the funds are comfortable in order to keep the fat cats upstairs happy, but in essence we are trading around a pivot point because the market is waiting to make a move. Let's face it, the fundamentals are probably not where OPEC would ideally want them to be. They won't admit it, but having to have premature talks about winding down cuts before crude prices have recovered enough is a difficult one. On 14 March 2016, Brent was trading at $39.53, in a not- too-dissimilar fundamental situation, and they really don't wont to go back down to those levels with the floating of Aramco around the corner. It will be the monthly IEA report, which is due out on Thursday, that is the big news of the week. We are starting to get some significant bearish pressure, and the market has reacted with some pretty negative days. Always remember OPEC are more than likely to have something up their sleeve to react to this eventuality - mainly because they can't duck their head in the sand forever like a frightened ostrich. We shall see. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (March 12)

The front crack opened at -10.25, strengthening to -9.85, before weakening to -10.00. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.85.

Cash differentials of Asia's 380 cSt high-sulphur fuel oil slipped on Monday as some suppliers accepted lower premiums for cargoes of the fuel.

The 380 cSt cargoes were sold at a premium of about 7 cents a tonne to Singapore quotes in front-end of the Singapore trading window on Monday, down from the premiums of about 35-60 cents a tonne paid for similar cargoes on Friday in the front and middle of the trading window.

Economic Data and Events

* 8:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

* Today:

** Oil & Finance conference, Oslo, 1st day of 2

** Bloomberg-compiled refinery snapshot for U.S. and Canada

Singapore 380 cSt

Apr18 - 359.00 / 361.00

May18 - 358.25 / 360.25

Jun18 - 357.25 / 359.25

Jul18 - 355.75 / 357.75

Aug18 - 354.00 / 356.00

Sep18 - 352.25 / 354.25

Q2-18 - 358.00 / 360.00

Q3-18 - 354.00 / 356.00

Q4-18 - 347.50 / 350.00

Q1-19 - 339.00 / 341.50

CAL19 - 310.75 / 314.75

CAL20 - 247.50 / 255.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Apr18 - 366.75 / 368.75

May18 - 365.75 / 367.75

Jun18 - 364.50 / 366.50

Jul18 - 363.00 / 365.00

Aug18 - 361.25 / 363.25

Sep18 - 359.50 / 361.50

Q2-18 - 365.75 / 367.75

Q3-18 - 361.50 / 363.50

Q4-18 - 355.00 / 357.50

Q1-19 - 346.75 / 349.25

CAL19 - 324.00 / 328.00

CAL20 - 259.50 / 267.50

Rotterdam Barges

Apr18 346.00 / 348.00

May18 345.25 / 347.25

Jun18 344.00 / 346.00

Jul18 342.25 / 344.25

Aug18 340.25 / 342.25

Sep18 337.50 / 339.50

Q2-18 345.25 / 347.25

Q3-18 340.25 / 342.25

Q4-18 330.75 / 333.25

Q1-19 323.25 / 325.75

CAL19 289.50 / 293.50

CAL20 234.50 / 242.50