Mon 12 Mar 2018 09:08

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



Commentary

Brent crude futures were at $65.36 per barrel, down $13 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their previous close at 07:14 GMT. U.S. WTI crude futures were at $61.90 a barrel, down $14 cents, or 0.2 percent. The U.S. economy really is starting to motor now, after adding 313,000 jobs according to data on Friday, the biggest jump for a few years. Even on the oil side they are continuing their drive forward. Even on lower rig count the production figures seem to have taken no hit at all. The U.S. oil motto is no 'when life gives you 10 lemons make the lemonade as if you had 20'. In other news the U.K. have rolled out the red carpet for Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince. The main topic of the meeting in relation to oil is whether the Saudi's choose to float Aramco in London or elsewhere. The lingering news piece that will reverse the situation oil news over the last couple of years is the eventual unwinding of OPEC's cuts. Before they always had the option of increasing or extending the cuts, now everyone is just thinking of when will they end them.

Fuel Oil Market (March 9)

The front crack opened at -10.40, strengthening to -10.25, before weakening to -10.30, closing at -1040. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.80.

Buying interest lifted Asia's 380 cSt fuel oil prompt-month and front-month time spreads to multi-week highs on Friday

The 380 cSt fuel oil balance-of-March/April time spread was trading at a premium of $1 a tonne at the end of Asian trading hours, its widest premium since Feb. 15 and up from a premium of 75 cents per tonne in the previous session.

Meanwhile, continued weakness in crude oil prices helped narrow the April 180 cSt fuel oil crack discount to Brent crude to its narrowest in more-than two weeks. Fuel oil stocks in the ARA oil hub jumped 41 percent from the previous week to an 11-week high of 1.089 million tonnes in the week ended March 8.

Economic Data and Events

* 12:30pm: Bloomberg forecast of U.S. waterborne LPG exports

* 6pm: EIA's Monthly Drilling Productivity Report

* March ICE gasoil expires

* Caspian CPC, Azeri Supsa crude programs for April

* Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillates inventories before Wednesday's EIA report

Singapore 380 cSt

Apr18 - 360.00 / 362.00

May18 - 359.25 / 361.25

Jun18 - 358.25 / 360.25

Jul18 - 356.75 / 358.75

Aug18 - 355.00 / 357.00

Sep 18 - 353.25 / 355.25

Q2-18 - 359.25 / 361.25

Q3-18 - 355.00 / 357.00

Q4-18 - 349.00 / 351.50

Q1-19 - 341.00 / 343.50

CAL19 - 311.75 / 315.75

CAL20 - 243.50 / 251.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Apr18 - 367.75 / 369.75

May18 - 366.75 / 368.75

Jun18 - 365.75 / 367.75

Jul18 - 364.25 / 366.25

Aug18 - 362.50 / 364.50

Sep 18 - 360.75 / 362.75

Q2-18 - 366.75 / 368.75

Q3-18 - 362.50 / 364.50

Q4-18 - 356.50 / 359.00

Q1-19 - 348.75 / 351.25

CAL19 - 325.00 / 329.00

CAL20 - 255.50 / 263.50

Rotterdam Barges

Apr18 347.00 / 349.00

May18 346.25 / 348.25

Jun18 345.25 / 347.25

Jul18 343.50 / 345.50

Aug18 341.50 / 343.50

Sep 18 - 338.75 / 340.75

Q2-18 346.25 / 348.25

Q3-18 341.25 / 343.25

Q4-18 332.00 / 334.50

Q1-19 324.50 / 327.00

CAL19 290.50 / 294.50

CAL20 230.50 / 238.50


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