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Oil prices fell on Monday as a monthly increase in production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries offset declining U.S. output and recent weakness in the dollar, which has underpinned oil prices.

Oil futures in London and New York started with a steadier note on Friday, keeping track of their short-term uptrend. However, last week's sharp price increase and the backdrop of an unstable technical constellation also favoured profit taking. In the first half of Friday the slightly bullish fundamentals still bolstered oil prices but in US trade oil futures lost traction. Traders locked in profits by cutting their bets on rising prices. Analysts remained sceptical about the price increase anyway as the rise might prolong the process of a rebalancing of supply and demand. News on Iran renewedly having succeeded in exporting crude oil to two European refineries after the lift of sanctions in January added to selling pressure. The Brent contract with delivery in June was rather volatile on Friday as it expired in the evening. Although Brent briefly slumped late in the evening, investors took less profits from the Brent contract ahead of its expiry than from the other contracts.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 413.00 USD on Friday, this was 2.25 USD below Thursday's settlement. With some 52,300 deals, the traded volume (front month) was above average.

The lines of the Stochastic indicator have clearly crossed at the Brent and the WTI front month charts. The indicator is thus giving off fresh selling signals. The RSI has dropped below 70% at the Brent chart, giving off an additional selling signal. At the WTI chart the indicator hasn't breached this marker sustainably yet, which is why it hasn't given off a clear selling signal at this chart yet. The technical constellation is the least bearish at the Gasoil chart as neither the Stochastic indicator nor the RSI are giving any clear signals at the moment. Still, the technical constellation can be assessed as bearish this morning. If the Stochastic indicator and the RSI confirm the selling signals at the WTI and the Gasoil charts in the course of the day, technical selling pressure would increase. The short-term uptrend is intact at the WTI chart but when the oil futures traded on the ICE trading platform broke below Friday's lows, more potential down to the 7-period moving average has been generated.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures kept track of Friday's losses in East Asia and in Globex electronic trade this morning, weighed down by the increase in OPEC output, higher exports of Iraqi crude oil and technical factors. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average this morning. Market players are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for the economic indicators due today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 2-5)
380cst $190
180cst $311
MGO $421

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 2-5)
380cst $210
180cst $252
MGO $416

Singapore (delivered indications 28-4)

Brent is gaining momentum +$0.38. Singapore paper is reflecting the same with +$1.75 for 180cst with +$3.00 for 380cst for May, and for June 180cst +$1.65 and 380cst with +$3.05 with MGO contracts May with +$0.52 and in June with +$0.46. The cargo market is following now with 180cst +$12.83, 380cst with +$11.76 and MGO with +$2.03.

380cst $212
180cst $218
MGO $396

Fujairah (delivered indications 28-4)

380cst $217
180cst $221
MGO $444

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $218
MGO 0.1%S: $403