Thu 3 Sep 2015, 12:13 GMT

Global Vision Market Report


Market report from Global Vision Bunkers B.V.



Oil futures reversed earlier losses to trade higher this morning, as sentiment was boosted amid a global stock market rally.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX traded in a very narrow range on Wednesday morning after having lost considerable ground on Tuesday. Market players were looking ahead to the release of the DOE's data on US oil inventories which was due on Wednesday afternoon. The API's report which had been released on Tuesday night weighed on oil prices. Given Tuesday's sharp losses, oil prices showed a slight upward correction ahead of the release of the DOE's report. Positive US indicators and the rise in NYMEX gasoline futures favoured this rise. The DOE's report contained bullish as well as bearish cues. In a first reaction, the bearish factors like the builds in nationwide crude oil inventories predominated the market. However, the bullish aspects like the decrease in US oil production lead to a rebound at oil markets. The data thus caused high volatility at oil markets, failing to give precise cues. Oil futures thus settled near Wednesday's highs.

ICE Gasoil contract for September delivery settled at 471.50 USD on Wednesday, this is -10.25 USD below Tuesday's settlement. With some 54,800 deals the traded volume (front month) was on average.

The Stochastic indicator has already given a selling signal on Wednesday but it remains bearish today. At the WTI and the Gasoil chart the MA21 proved strong, limiting the downward potential. When the MA7 and the MA21 at ICE and NYMEX charts crossed, a fresh buying signal was generated. The technical indicators are thus giving ambiguous cues this morning. That is why we consider the technical constellation as neutral for the time being. For fresh downward potential to be generated, oil futures would have to break below the MA 7 in the coming days. If they don't, a new uptrend between MA7 and the upper Bollinger Band might establish.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures remained near Wednesday's highs in Asian and electronic trading this morning as decisive cues were lacking. The traded NYMEX volume is far above average at this time of day. Investors are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for the release of today's economic indicators.

Forecast: Crude oil +0.1; Distillates +1.2; Gasoline -1.5 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +4.7; Distillates +0.1; Gasoline -0.3 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +7.6; Distillates +0.3; Gasoline -1.0 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 3-9)
380cst $252
180cst $353
MGO $498

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 3-9)
380cst $262
180cst $309
MGO $482

Singapore (delivered indications 3-9)

WTI is bullish with +$1.68. Singapore paper is up with +$14.00. for 180cst with +$13.75 for 380cst for Sep, and for Oct 180 cst +$13.95 and 380cst with +$13.50 with MGO contracts Sep gaining with +$2.13 and in Oct with +$2.11. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$16.90, 380cst with -$16.36 and MGO with -$2.99.

380cst $250
180cst $258
MGO $448

Fujairah (delivered indications 3-9)

380cst $250
180cst $283
MGO $609

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $248
MGO 0.1%S: $453

MGO  

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