Fri 3 Aug 2012, 13:18 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



After having climbed during morning trade oil prices consolidate on a high level as the Brent's resistance at 106.95 dollars has not been breached sustainably and the G.Oil's resistance at 909.75 dollars also proved strong. The geopolitical factors, like Kurdistan, the US sanctions and the civil war in Syria, as well as a tighter offer of North Sea crude have supported the price level, with investors refocussing on supply and demand after the ECB's and the Fed's announced measures fell short of expectations.

Oil prices rose in morning trading at ICE and NYMEX, breaching several short-term resistance lines as traders hoped for the European Central Bank to take new measures to stimulate the euro-zone economy. At the press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged but not implement new stimulus measures and only hinted at future steps to tackle the euro zone's fiscal woes, following similar inaction from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Disappointed investors sold off on equities, the euro and oil futures that tumbled to fresh lows in the process. Then market participants' focus returned to the fundamentals such as the bullish petroleum inventories and slightly encouraging US employment data and the selloff was stopped and prices started to rise again but a strong dollar vs a euro under pressure limited the gains.

ICE Gasoil contract for August delivery settled at 908.00 dollars on Thursday. This was 1.50 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. With some 30,000 contracts the traded volume was below average.

OPEC: Crude oil output by Opec member-states has dropped in July, as US and European sanctions have cut supply from Iran and due to reduced shipments from Angola, Saudi Arabia and Libya. Supply from OPEc has averaged 31.18 million barrels per day, down from 31.63 million bpd in June. The biggest drop in supplies this month came from Iran, whose crude is subject to a European Union embargo that started on July 1 barring EU insurance firms from covering Iran's exports.

The Stochastic indicator is still slightly bearish at the WTI and the gasoil charts this morning but its two lines are converging, signaling that the oscillator is losing its bearish effect. At the brent chart the lines have already converged making the indicator neutral. Should they cross, a buying signal would be triggered. Yet technical analysts are neutral today, expecting the market to stay volatile.

U.S.

Nymex access gaining: Oil futures rise in East-Asia and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning but still trading in a narrow range as market participants are looking for direction after Thursday's disappointing session. The traded volume is far below average. Market participants eye equities and forex markets today as well as a string of economic indicators.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 2-8)

380cst $610
180cst $644
MGO $955

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 2-8)

380cst $613
180cst $648
MGO $960

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is back on its bearish track with WTI -$0.83. Singapore paper is not reacting, gaining with +$0.75 for 180cst and +$0.75 for 380cst for Aug, and for Sep 180 cst +$0.95 and 380cst +$0.75 with MGO contracts Aug +$0.55 and Sep +$0.55. The cargo market is turning again with 180cst +$0.79, 380cst +$1.77 and MGO +$0.87.

The Singapore fuel oil market prices lost somewhat during the morning window yesterday. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a slight build of 0.23 mbbl to 17.61 mbbl. This morning markets are trading slightly higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $628
180 cst $640
MGO $900

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

In the ARA, fuel prices bolstered somewhat, keeping demand subdued. Continuing loading delays and short cutter stocks underpinning the markets. High premiums are charged for prompt enquiries.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 610
(1.0 %) :$ 657
180cst: $ 637
(1.0 %):$ 698
MGO 0.1%S: $900

BP   MGO  

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