Fri 4 May 2012, 14:01 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil futures kept track of their losses in the wake of retreating equities this morning. They were also weighed down by technical selling. After the WTI crude fell through its key support at 102.40 dollars, quotations in London and New York breached more supports. Investors are eying US labor market statistics which are due to be published later this afternoon. Investors expect that the unemployment rate will be unchanged.

Against the backdrop of a bearish technical constellation investors took some profit in London and New York on Thursday morning. Thus, Wednesday's bearish tendency continued. However, the supports at 117.60 dollars for the Brent and at 104.70 dollars for the WTI crude capped losses. The ECB's decision to leave its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1.0% and to refrain from taking any more supportive action despite increasing worries over the financial stability of Spain, Italy and France, not only weighed on the dollar but also on oil futures. At the beginning of New York's session, the traded volume increased and many market players reduced their long positions. Analysts say, it was a mainly technical reaction in a bearish market which prompted investors to take some profit despite of the better than expected US employment data. When the previously stable supports were breached, larger technical selling orders were triggered, which accelerated the downward correction. Along with retreating equities, the reading of the US ISM non-manufacturing index which was released at that time put some additional pressure on oil prices. Trading at 983.50 dollars, the ICE G.Oil marked its lowest price since mid of February, whereas the Brent fell to a 2.5-month low of 115.92 dollars. The WTI's downward correction was limited by its support at 102.40 dollars, however, so the US benchmark blend marked a 2-week low.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 988.25 dollars on Thursday. This was -11.25 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. With some 67,100 contracts the traded volume was on average.

While the stochastic indicator does not give any new selling impulsions but remains bearish, the RSI can be regarded as neutral this morning, see also technical analysis. Despite of the bearish technical constellation, analysts expect prices to consolidate in the morning, maybe even on a slightly higher level. Speculators are likely to have accumulated some short positions yesterday, which they might cover with some buying orders even ahead of today's US labor market statistics in order to reduce their riskier assets. From the technical stance, the 102.40 dollar support, which remained strong yesterday, will be an important threshold for the WTI crude. Only below this level, technical selling orders are likely.

U.S.

Nymex access losing: Oil futures have edged higher in Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. After the WTI crude bounced off its support and yesterday's large technical selling orders, oil futures consolidate on a lower level, whereas they have slightly recovered from yesterday's lows. The traded volume has been far below average. Investors now watch the performances of stock and forex markets, and today's economic indicators, in particular US labor market statistics.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 4-5)

380cst $703
180cst $738
MGO $1030

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 4-5)

380cst $703
180cst $735
MGO $1048

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is dropping like a stone with WTI -$3.44 Singapore paper is also losing still with -$13.90 for 180cst and -$12.70 for 380cst for May, and for June 180 cst -$13.00 and 380cst -$12.70 with MGO contracts May -$2.93 and June -$2.84. The cargo market is adopting the bearishness with 180cst -$12.97, 380cst -$11.70 and MGO -$1.64.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $700
180 cst $710
MGO $980

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA markets softened Yesterday, with weaker crude keeping buying interest subdued. The Eastern arbitrage is at workable levels. The loading and barge congestions are improving, with normal waiting times expected at the end of the week.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 690
(1.0 %) :$ 730
180cst: $ 728
(1.0 %):$ 748
MGO 0.1%S: $970

MGO  

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