Wed 18 Jan 2012, 13:12 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



After a short dip in the wake of a retreating euro and weaker equities, oil futures rebounded around midday. Remaining within their ranges, they have traded near yesterday's settlement prices. Given the bullish technical constellation, larger buying orders are only expected if oil futures breach their resistance lines.

Yesterday, Oil futures rose in electronic morning trading on technical buying after the Stochastic oscillator had turned bullish in the morning. Better-than-expected economic indicators from Chinaand positive European indicators helped the euro up and lent oil prices additional support. After the opening of NYMEX session, however, market participants took advantage of the increase in prices and took some profit. When the WTI's 101.00 dollar resistance was hit several time but proved strong, a string of technically driven selling orders added to the pressure on oil futures despite the bullish Stochastic oscillator. While ICE futures and oil products settled lower, WTI crude recovered in late trade, reducing the Brent-WTI spread, a sign that the current risk premium has been somewhat reduced.

ICE Gasoil contract for February delivery settled at 952.75 dollars on Tuesday. This was 6.00 dollars below Monday's settlement. With some 73,700 contracts the traded volume was above average.

The Stochastic oscillator at the ICE and NYMEX charts is bullish this morning. So technical analysts see some technical buying today. Should the WTI breach its first resistance at 101.85 dollars a barrel the contract would target next resistances at 102.00 and 103.00 dollars. Strong support lines at 99.50 dollars (WTI) and 111.00 dollars (Brent) should limit the downside today.

U.S.

Nymex acces gaining. Oil futures are edging higher in Asian trading hours and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning on a stronger euro and rising Asian equity markets. The traded volume is about on average. A few USindicators will be eyed in the afternoon.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 17-1)

380cst $678
180cst $713
MGO $1027

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 17-1)

380cst $681
180cst $716
MGO $1030

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is slowing with WTI +$0.10. Singapore paper is mirroring crude with +$3.70 for 180cst and +$3.25 for 380cst for Feb, and for Mar 180 cst +$3.70 and 380cst +$3.25 with MGO Feb contracts -$1.45 and for Mar -$1.46. The cargo market is reacting to the bullish sentiment with 180cst +$5.35, 380cst +$6.67 and MGO +$0.84.

The Singapore fuel oil markets erased the previous day's loss rebounding more than +$6.0 during the early Platts window yesterday. Market continues to be supported by tightness which also propagated to other regional ports. The delivered bunker premiums were seen around $26.0 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel papers gained a couple of dollars along the curve both in Singapore and Rotterdam. Prices were slightly stronger at the front of the forward curve maintaining an attractive backwardation as 2013 papers are traded at more than $100/mt discount against spot prices in Singapore and app. $90/mt in Rotterdam. This morning both markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $730
180 cst $745
MGO $958

Fujairah (delivered indications 18-1)

380cst $725
180cst $750
MGO $1050

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Despite a softer 3.5% FOB Rotterdambarge assessment, Northwest European bunker values continued to firm Tuesday on ongoing high sulfur fuel oil shortages prompted by ongoing VLCC loading in Rotterdam. The premium of delivered Rotterdam 380 CST low sulfur to high sulfur bunker fuel was assessed at $10/mt Tuesday, down from $14.50/mt Monday, an 11-month low due to a tight HSFO supplies and weaker sentiment on low sulfur fuel oil. The $10/mt 380 CST LSFO premium over HSFO was last seen February 8, 2011. HSFO was supported by strong demand from the Asian market and the anticipation of more arbitrage flows from Rotterdam to Singapore next month.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 679
(1.0 %) :$ 687
180cst: $ 689
(1.0 %):$ 730
MGO 0.1%S: $955

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