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Technical indicators: bullish immediate term / neutral medium term

Oil prices are trading up at midday but retreated from earlier highs after failing to capitalize on their earlier strength, which helped NYMEX crude edge above 85.00 dollars for the first time in two weeks. Analysts do not make changes to their short-term outlook but still favour sideways trading.

Last Friday, oil prices pared earlier losses during the session in New York, settling slightly lower after a thin trading day. Prices are forecast to be little changed also this week as signs of U.S. economic recovery are balanced by concerns that Europe’s debt crisis may hurt growth and fuel demand.

ICE gasoil December is expected to open 4.00 to 5.50 dollars higher at about 726.75 dollars/ton after settling at 722.00 dollars (official settlement price) Friday night. This was 6.75 dollars below Thursday's settlement. Volume with some 34,100 deals below average.

Oil prices are still in a short-term uptrend with prices ranging at the upper limits of the trendchannel. The Stochastic indicator is in overbought territory today, signaling a possible downward correction, while the RSI is still in neutral territory. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 83.00 dollars today, the first resistance at 84.55 dollars. WTI crude prices are seen ranging within 85.00 and 83.00 dollars today.

U.S.

Nymex Access : Oil prices are gaining ground in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning, WTI crude rising past 84.00 dollars for a barrel, after the European Union approved a rescue for Ireland. No news in the markets. The traded volume is above average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 23-11)

380cst: $457
180cst: $480
MGO: $753

Very tight avails for 180cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 23-11)

380cst: $460
180cst: $483
MGO: $756

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs local time)

Crude is bolstering with WTI +$1.11. Singapore paper is reflecting it with 180cst +$5.20 and 380cst +$5.50 for Dec, and Jan 180 cst +$4.80 and 380cst +$4.60 with MGO Dec contracts +$0.71 and for Jan at +$0.71. The cargo market is mixed with 180cst +$1.29, 380cst +$1.93 and MGO -$0.13.

The Asian fuel oil market strengthened on Friday, with cash differentials for the 380-centistoke (cst) grade surging to a 4-1/2-month high while December/January hit its highest level since turning prompt a week ago. The December crack was down for a second session, which fell further below a discount of $7.00/bbl on higher crude benchmarks. The prompt market remains supported by heavy volumes of high-water content cargoes arriving in November and December and tighter Western inflows next month of 3.2-3.3 million tones.

High premiums for prompt deliveries:

380cst: $496
180cst: $508
MGO: $735

Fujairah (delivered indications 29/11)

380cst: $491
180cst: $527
MGO: $750

Rotterdam

Last Friday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) 78KT was traded between 464.00-465.25 with Cargill as the main seller to Litasco, BP and Petroned as the main buyers.

The NWE HSFO markets are firming slightly, as the Eastern Arbitrage is open now. The Front Crown was reported being fixed for for early December loading, now the Kazimah III is also fixed for end December loading. The Singaporean markets are seen 60 cents in normal backwardation. The HSFO Med markets are oversupplied and sluggish, with cargoes to NWE starting to become more attractive. For the LSFO there are some cargoes seen moved from NWE to the Med, although the arbitrage is not considered to be open yet. The NWE LSFO markets are well supplied, with stored product entering the market and product arriving out of the US.

380cst: $474
(1.0%): $491
180cst: $488
(1.0%): $505
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $731