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Commentary

Brent closed Friday down $0.70 to $68.61, WTI closed at $63.37, down $0.58. So, it didn't take long, we're three weeks in to the year and the first stories about the OPCE/Non OPEC cuts have already been published. Leave it alone! Yes, yes, yes, the cuts are working. We can see that. Crude oil prices are hovering around $70 per bbl and everyone at an OPEC meeting has got sore hands from the sheer volumes of big tens they are giving each other. Is the market convinced prices will stay up here, though? Is that the reason OPEC perhaps saw it fit to come out in the press and say that the cuts could well be extended beyond 2018. One thing's for sure: with the sheer volume of length on Brent and WTI we are seeing now, the minute any real bearish news comes out, the market will look to get out quicker than you would if you were stuck in a phone box with a panicking gorilla. I'm pretty sure we can attribute some of this gain in flat price to how poorly the US dollar is performing. It seems as if the US government is having one of those days off you used to get when you were at school - teacher training days they call them. So let's see if Trumpy can think of some encouraging words that will put the oilmighty US dollar back on track. I'm fed up of reading about "healthy stock draws". I keep on saying that the crude that is being drawn in the US isn't actually going anywhere, it's being refined into products, and product stocks have grown more than the number of crude bbls that are being drawn! *Breathe*.

Fuel Oil Market (January 19)

Asia's fuel oil time spreads and cracks traded higher for a second straight session on Friday, shedding losses from earlier in the week amid improving market sentiment.

This came despite increased fuel oil loadings in northwest Europe destined for delivery into Singapore around endFebruary, sources said. Fuel oil stocks in the ARA oil hub dropped 21%, or 219,000 tonnes, from the previous week to a more-than-five month low of 0.816 million tonnes in the week ended Jan. 18, data from Dutch consultancy PJK International showed.

ARA fuel oil inventories were 16 percent higher than a year ago, but were below the fiveyear average of 926,000 tonnes for this time of the year. The fuel oil drop was due to two VLCCs that left the region for Asia, PJK's Lars van Wageningen said.

Economic Data and Events

* 1:30pm: Bloomberg forecast of U.S. waterborne LPG exports

* 1:30pm: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for Dec., est. 0.22 (prior 0.15)

** Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillates inventories before Wednesday's EIA report

** JODI issues world oil exports, output data

Singapore 380 cSt

Feb18 - 380.75 / 382.75

Mar18 - 380.75 / 382.75

Apr18 - 380.50 / 382.50

May18 - 380.00 / 382.00

Jun18 - 379.50 / 381.50

Jul18 - 378.25 / 380.25

Q2-18 - 380.00 / 382.00

Q3-18 - 376.75 / 378.75

Q4-18 - 371.00 / 373.50

Q1-19 - 363.50 / 366.00

CAL19 - 333.75 / 336.75

CAL20 - 282.25 / 287.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Feb18 - 385.75 / 387.75

Mar18 - 386.00 / 388.00

Apr18 - 385.75 / 387.75

May18 - 385.25 / 387.25

Jun18 - 385.25 / 387.25

Jul18 - 383.75 / 385.75

Q2-18 - 385.25 / 387.25

Q3-18 - 382.25 / 384.25

Q4-18 - 376.75 / 379.25

Q1-19 - 370.00 / 372.50

CAL19 - 342.25 / 345.25

CAL20 - 291.25 / 296.25

Rotterdam Barges

Feb18 368.25 / 370.25

Mar18 368.75 / 370.75

Apr18 368.50 / 370.50

May18 367.75 / 369.75

Jun18 366.75 / 368.75

Jul18 365.25 / 367.25

Q2-18 367.75 / 369.75

Q3-18 363.25 / 365.25

Q4-18 353.75 / 356.25

Q1-19 345.75 / 348.25

CAL19 313.25 / 316.25

CAL20 263.00 / 268.00