Fri 3 Nov 2017, 08:44 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



Brent closed up $0.13 last night to $60.62 and WTI closed at $54.54, up $0.24. Well, once again, it's all rather rosy. Brent is up 2% on the week. On the month it's up 7.5% and on the year it is up 16%. I'm sure everyone who is at OPEC is giving themselves a massive pat on the back. The question is: will these levels be able to sustain themselves? Well, let's talk about that, shall we? Let's have OPEC in the Brent corner and the USA in the WTI corner for a second. OPEC production has been capped and Brent has risen 16% since that magical meeting. US production has risen by about 1.1mn bpd and prices have risen about 10% on WTI. So let me ask you this my fellow oilanauts, which one has the ability to maintain higher prices and higher production? I fear that the start of my commentary will soon lead with the price of WTI and not Brent. Has Brent had its day as the global benchmark? Perhaps not, perhaps it's even irrelevant, but let me tell you this: China have ramped up crude purchases in 2017 by 13% so far. The US are exporting more and more and are now starting to sell to the Chinese. The Middle East (OPEC really) has seen a sizeable drop in the number of cargoes purchased by China. Apparently, demand is increasing but pfff to that, this "increased demand" is nothing, but buyers making hay whilst WTI is $6 cheaper than Brent. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to work that out, does it? I wish you all a wonderful weekend.

Fuel Oil Market (November 2)

The front crack opened at -7.40, weakening to -7.50, strengthening to -7.45, ending the day at -7.55. The Cal 18 was valued at -7.55.

Asia's front-month East-West arbitrage spread slipped to a near-three week low on Thursday as Singapore onshore inventories of the industrial fuel climbed to an eight-week high.

The December arbitrage spread was also weighed down by recent strength in the Rotterdam market relative to Singapore, making fuel oil imports into Singapore from the European oil hub less economical, sources said.

Singapore inventories rose for a fourth straight week, up 2.5%, or 94,000 tonnes, from the previous week to 3.84 million tonnes in the week to Nov. 1. Weekly net imports into Singapore were down 31% from a week earlier to 0.88 million tonnes, a three-week low. Fuel oil stocks are now 12.6% higher year on year.

Economic Data/Events: (UK times)

* 12:30pm: U.S.

** Change in nonfarm payrolls for Oct., est. 313k (prior -33k)

** Unemployment rate for Oct., est. 4.2% (prior 4.2%)

** Trade balance for Sept., est. -$43.2b (prior -$42.4b)

* 2pm: U.S.

** Factory orders for Sept., est. 1.2% (prior 1.2%)

** Durable goods orders for Sept., final, est. 2% (prior 2.2%)

* 5pm: U.S. Baker Hughes weekly oil, gas rig counts

* 6pm: ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* 7:30pm: U.S. CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on futures and options contracts

Singapore 380 cSt

Dec17 - 355.50 / 357.50

Jan18 - 353.25 / 355.25

Feb18 - 351.50 / 353.50

Mar18 - 349.75 / 351.75

Apr18 - 348.25 / 350.25

May18 - 346.75 / 348.75

Q1-18 - 351.50 / 353.50

Q2-18 - 346.75 / 348.75

Q3-18 - 341.25 / 343.75

Q4-18 - 336.00 / 338.50

CAL18 - 343.00 / 346.00

CAL19 - 307.75 / 312.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Dec17 - 360.25 / 362.25

Jan18 - 358.75 / 360.75

Feb18 - 357.00 / 359.00

Mar18 - 355.75 / 357.75

Apr18 - 354.75 / 356.75

May18 - 353.50 / 355.50

Q1-18 - 357.25 / 359.25

Q2-18 - 353.25 / 355.25

Q3-18 - 347.75 / 350.25

Q4-18 - 343.50 / 346.00

CAL18 - 349.75 / 352.75

CAL19 - 316.75 / 321.75

Rotterdam 380 cSt

Dec17 335.00 / 337.00

Jan18 333.00 / 335.00

Feb18 332.00 / 334.00

Mar18 331.00 / 333.00

Apr18 330.00 / 332.00

May18 328.75 / 330.75

Q1-18 332.00 / 334.00

Q2-18 329.00 / 331.00

Q3-18 323.50 / 326.00

Q4-18 315.25 / 317.75

CAL18 325.00 / 328.00

CAL19 286.00 / 291.00

BP  

Closing ceremony of vessel with builder’s hull no. 0315874. LNG dual-fuel crude tanker handed over to Capital  

Jiangsu New Times Shipbuilding delivers the 155,500-DWT LNG dual-fuel crude oil vessel Amor.

Lowina Lundstrom, Gasum. Gasum names Lowina Lundström as vice president, biogas  

Former EIT InnoEnergy executive joins Gasum's management team to lead biogas business development from 1 December.

PIL and Huanghai Shipbuilding contract signing. PIL orders seven methanol-ready feeder vessels from Huanghai Shipbuilding  

Singapore carrier's 1,400-TEU newbuilds will boost intra-Asia capacity and support its 2050 net zero target.

MPA and Qingdao Port work plan signing ceremony. Singapore and Qingdao sign work plan to advance green and digital shipping corridors  

MPA and Shandong Port Group’s Qingdao Port have agreed to pursue methanol bunkering pilots and data-sharing initiatives between the two ports.

Delfin Midstream FLNG unit render. Wärtsilä to supply dual-fuel engines and thrusters for Delfin Midstream's FLNG vessel  

Finnish technology group lands propulsion order for first floating LNG vessel built for US Gulf export project.

Uni-Fuels Logo. Uni-Fuels advertises for senior bunker trader in Dubai  

Nasdaq-listed firm recruiting for its trading team as it aims to drive growth.

Mineral Europa vessel. Green ammonia bunkered to ammonia-powered bulk carrier in Australian first  

Pilbara Ports, Fortescue and CMB.Tech complete a ship-to-ship ammonia transfer at Port Hedland, supporting plans for a clean fuel bunkering hub in the region.

Sea Change II vessel render. US Coast Guard agrees design framework for hydrogen-fuelled New York ferry  

Switch Maritime and Incat Crowther reach regulatory agreement for a 150-passenger hydrogen fuel cell-electric fast ferry intended for New York's waterways.

Auto Advance vessel. UECC fits WE Tech hybrid power systems on newbuild ro-ro vessels  

Norwegian short-sea operator says battery and shaft generator technology from WE Tech Solutions has cut fuel use and auxiliary engine reliance on three newbuilds.

Terra Clove vessel. Envision's green ammonia used to bunker world's first VLAC  

Chinese energy group supplies vessel owned by Eastern Pacific Shipping as it links production and marine fuel supply chains.