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Fuel oil trend

Rotterdam: $ 5 lower.
Singapore: $ 5 lower.
US Gulf: $ 4 lower.

Strong U.S. data - markets await oil inventory data (Brent: $107.8)

Strong U.S. non-manufacturing ISM data yesterday underpinned expectations of an improved U.S. economy (55.2 versus 53.1 previous) and markets are now looking for a status on oil inventories tonight and tomorrow afternoon (ADP and EIA respectively). Last week's record build weighed on oil prices shortly. The geopolitical sitaution in Ukraine is, however, supportive for oil prices.

The EU commission yesterday stated that expected growth in the euro zone will be 1.4% in 2014 – inflation estimate 0.8%. Thursday’s ECB statement and interest rate decision could be non-events; but there are several economic key numbers from European countries this week which will be followed closely.

In Ukraine, government is fighting to regain control over Eastern Ukraine ahead of the presidential elections on 25 May.

Libyan oil production is still fragile; current production is approx. 250,000 bpd, but the large El Sharara oilfield remains closed, along with two other smaller fields due to protests.