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Crude oil prices held gains in Asia this morning on continued uncertainty as to whether armed protesters in Libya will allow oil exports to resume from seized ports.

After the losses oil futures marked in the first half of the week, prices consolidated on Thursday morning. The bearish signals the technical constellation provided were largely spent and so the downside was limited. Market participants were waiting for news on a definite reopening of Libyan oil export terminals in the East of the country but remained unsatisfied. Thus, traders covered their short positions (raised on Tuesday and Wednesday) in the course of the day sending oil futures higher. The ECB yesterday announced to leave its monetary policy unchanged. The outlook of more liquidity in the Euro zone bolstered oil prices, whereas it sent the common currency down. This already pointed to a rise in domestic prices in the euro zone in the afternoon, even though this rise didn't show in our survey released at 2.30 p.m. Apart from this, the tensions between Russia and the NATO have increased as both parties are now showing their military presence along the Ukrainian border. Futures at ICE and NYMEX completely pared initial losses late in the evening finishing with new highs.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 881.50 USD on Thursday. This was +8.00 USD above Wednesday's settlement. With some 39,700 deals, the traded volume of the front month was below average.

With the sharp rise at oil markets yesterday evening, the stochastic indicator generated a buying signal at the Brent chart. At the Gasoil and the WTI chart the lines of the indicator have meet but so far there hasn't been any buying signal yet. Upward potential is still limited by the strong resistances at 106.20 USD Brent and at 889.00 USD Gasoil. From a merely technical perspective, the buying signal of the stochastic indicator at the Brent chart supports oil prices today, which is why we assess the technical situation as slightly bullish. If oil futures sustainably breach the resistances mentioned above and if the stochastic indicator at the Gasoil and the WTI chart confirms the buying signal at the Brent chart, prices might see another technical rise. If the resistances remain strong, there might be some profit taking, though.

U.S.

Nymex below average: After yesterday's late rise, oil futures consolidate on a high level in a narrow range this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is far below average for this time of day. Traders are now eying the development at stock and forex markets waiting for today's economic data, particularly the official jobs data out of the USA. Moreover they are keeping an eye on the situation in Libya and on the tensions between Russia and the West.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 4-4)
380cst $588
180cst $693
MGO $983

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 4-4)
380cst $621
180cst $669
MGO $972

Singapore (delivered indications 4-4)

WTI is climbing with +$1.74. Singapore paper is up aswell with +$7.75 for 180cst and +7.10 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst +$6.00 and 380cst +$6.00 with MGO contracts being bullish Apr +$2.12 and May -$2.10. The cargo market is bearish with 180 cst -$3.40, 380cst -$3.39 and MGO -$0.97.

Singapore FO 180cst cash premium rebounded yesterday to a one week high reflecting healthier fundamentals, incremental demand seen from Vietnam, Bangladesh and India. Ex-wharf 380cst was assessed at $582.50/mt down $4.0/mt. In general 380cst looks ample supplied and avg. delivered price 380cst yesterday was seen at $575.00/mt. FO paper market were seen weaker just after the window and consumer interest looked stronger, but after all owners/operators still hoping for lower levels. We should bear in mind that FO haven’t been at this level since June last year; and only for a short note before market went up again.

380cst $588
180cst $605
MGO $910

Fujairah (delivered indications 4-4)

380cst $600
180cst $638
MGO $981

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $583
(1.0 %) : $660
180cst: $623
MGO 0.1%S: $877