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Crude oil prices rose marginally in Asia this morning as an annexation of the Crimean region looked inevitable after a vote on Sunday.

After Thursday's decline in oil prices, investors stayed on the sidelines on Friday morning. However, the tendency became more and more steady in the course of the day. In the first half of the day, the IEA released its latest monthly energy report in which the agency upwardly revised its global oil demand forecast for 2014. Even though the IEA expects that the oil market should remain balanced as global supplies are also likely to increase more strongly than expected, the majority of traders interpreted the report as slightly bullish. However, oil futures were particularly fostered by the political insecurity regarding Crimea. As we had already suggested in our early morning news on Friday, investors avoided keeping their short positions over the weekend against the backdrop of the referendum scheduled on Sunday. "People are squaring positions off until we see how the market reacts and what really happens over the weekend," Tariq Zahir, analyst at Tyche Capital explained Friday evening. Futures surpassed several resistances generating even more technical buying orders. The stochastic indicator gave a buying signal at the Gasoil chart Friday afternoon which accelerated the rise. At last, particularly ICE futures gained ground settling near their highs.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 901.75 USD on Friday. This was +11.00 USD above Thursday's settlement. With some 68,000 deals, the traded volume of the front month was above average.

The stochastic indicator already gave a buying signal at the WTI and the Gasoil chart on Friday as its lines had crossed. The RSI hasn't confirmed the buying signal yet, still hovering below 30%.
Brent has renewedly surpassed its downtrend. If there aren't any more buying signals, the contract might consolidate sideways. From a merely technical point of view, the situation is slightly bullish, given Friday's buying signals.

U.S.

Nymex cooling: After Friday's gains, market players tend to take some profits this morning. Meanwhile futures at ICE have breached first supports. However, investors are very nervous regarding the crisis in Crimea and so they are still rather cautious. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average for this time of day. Traders are now monitoring the development at stock and forex markets looking ahead to today's economic data and keeping an eye on the development of the situation in the Ukraine and Libya.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 17-3)
380cst $590
180cst $670
MGO $989

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 17-3)
380cst $642
180cst $675
MGO $993

Singapore (delivered indications 17-3)

WTI is bullish with +$0.19. Singapore paper is bullish with +$1.75 for 180cst and +$0.75 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst +$1.00 and 380cst +$2.25 with MGO contracts being bearish Apr +$0.75 and May +$0.57. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst +$0.25, 380cst -$1.49 and MGO -$0.40.

The Singapore fuel oil prices closed mixed ranging -$1.50 to +$0.25 during the Asian Platts window last Friday. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a build of +2.25 mbbl to 19.48 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums remained around +$4.5 to $6.0 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading down.

380cst $604
180cst $615
MGO $914

Fujairah (delivered indications 17-3)

380cst $607
180cst $643
MGO $982

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $580
(1.0 %) : $650
180cst: $610
MGO 0.1%S: $863