---

West Texas Intermediate crude headed for a weekly gain before U.S. employment data that may add to evidence the economic recovery is on track. Brent exceeded $110 for the first time since April, before paring its advance. Futures rose as much as 0.9 percent, bringing their gain this week to 3.2 percent. Government data today may show employers added jobs in July at about the same pace as in the previous month, trimming the unemployment rate. The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index expanded at the fastest rate in two years, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said yesterday. Libya’s head of oil security quit as labor protests shut export terminals in the country. WTI for September delivery rose as much as 93 cents to $108.82 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $107.79 as of 11:32 a.m. London time. The volume of all futures traded was 32 percent above the 100-day average. The contract climbed 2.7 percent to $107.89 yesterday, the most since July 10 and its highest closing level since July 19. Brent for September settlement advanced as much as 55 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $110.09 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, topping $110 for the first time since April 3. The European benchmark’s premium to WTI shrank to as little as $1.26.

After briefly consolidating within their technical trading range, oil futures ticked up after the opening of European markets and soon breached their first resistance. The rather bullish DoE report released on Wednesday as well as positive figures out of China helped oil prices to advance beyond this first hurdle, supported also by the bullish technical constellation. Furthermore, the fact that the Fed had not given any hints at an early exit from the bond buying programme after its two-day meeting propped up financial markets. Adding to oil's upward potential were geopolitical tensions as well as positive U.S. indicators released in the afternoon. Moreover, U.S. stock markets also made considerable gains during Thursday’s session and reinforced oil futures' upward potential so that they incessantly contiued to rise despite the dollar’s strength. ICE contract had been more or less consolidating after the opening of U.S. markets but still settled with gains, Brent having reached this week’s high at 109.64 USD. WTI, however, breached more resistances in the afternoon and eventually closed at its day’s high.

ICE Gasoil contract for August delivery settled at 927.00 USD on Thursday. This was 16.50 USD above Wednesday's settlement. With some 32,700 deals the traded volume was below average.

After oil futures escaped their short-term downtrend and received a buying signal by the Stochastic, the indicator is bullish this morning. The RSI is still neutral, not giving off any signals at the moment. The Stochastic, however, is slowly moving into the overbought zone again. Given the past two day’s surge, oil’s bullish potential may have been used up. Thus, technical profit-taking is quite likely to a certain extent. Still, we consider the technical constellation as bullish today.

U.S.

Nymex bullish: Oil prices at ICE and NYMEX are continuing their uptrend in Asian trading this morning. Investors are hoping for more positive indicators in the course of the day. The traded volume at NYMEX is far below average for this time of day. Market players are now waiting for European markets to open, for new clues from forex trading as well as for the economic data on the agenda today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 01-08 )
380cst $595
180cst $674
MGO $1013

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 01-08)
380cst $597
180cst $643
MGO $1014

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bullish with +$2.58. The paper market bullish still, gaining with Aug 180cst +$3.75 and for 380cst +$3.25, and Sept contracts with 180cst +$3.00, 380st +$4.20. The cargo market is mixed with 180cst -$5.52, and 380cst +$0.68 and MGO +$1.39.

380cst $600
180cst $603
MGO $925

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Trading activity experienced some obstacles due to tight barge availability and low product stocks. HSFO was quite tight from some suppliers.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $614
(1.0 %) :$618
180cst: $644
(1.0 %):$ 648
MGO 0.1%S: $ 907