---

Oil prices in London and New York traded narrowly rangebound at a high level. Although the euro shortly edged higher, oil futures stayed within their technical limitations, not least because there were hardly any signals neither from a technical nor from a fundamental point of view.The data on European current accounts also failed to make an impact on the oil market. Investors may tend to be cautious today given the low trade volume and increased volatility due to President’s Day in the USA.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX started at a high level Friday morning and thus, continued to consolidate rangebound. At this stage, G.Oil’s resistance at 1,014.00 USD again proved to be strong, limiting upward potential. Investors could take some profits with the euro, which essentially weakened oil prices. As a result, oil futures tested first supports, some of which were breached in further tradig. Only when floor trading started at NYMEX did the market receive new momentum, which increasingly raised selling pressure. Traders largely locked in profits, especially with WTI futures. Profit-taking was also technically favoured when several supports were breached. Brent and WTI shortly breaking out their medium-term trend channel played an important role but at 116.35 USD Brent and G.Oil’s psychological support level at 1,000.00 USD selling pressure at ICE died down. Geopolitical risks limited more downside and bouncing off supports favoured a counterreaction later on. In the end, Brent and G.Oil closed hardly changed and WTI could not considerably recover and thus, the spread to the Brent contract for April delivery widened again to over 21.60 USD.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 1,003.00 dollars on Friday. This was 8.25 dollars below Thursday's settlement. With some 71,400 deals the traded volume was above average.

The stochastic oscillator stays bearish for WTI but as the selling signal already dates a few days back, it is losing its effect now. The indicator is neutral for Brent and G.Oil, though still showing an overbought market situation at the Brent chart. The RSI is still above the 70-% line at the G.Oil chart but could give off a selling signal if this line were breached. WTI’s support at 95.00 USD remains very important while key supports for Brent and G.Oil are at 116.30 USD and 1,000.00 USD respectively. From a technical point of view, upward potential is limited, especially by Brent’s last week’s high at 118.30 USD and G.Oil’s resistancre at 1,012.75 USD. In face of President’s Day in the USA, the traded volume is expected to be quite low and market participants may be somewhat reserved today.

U.S.

Nymex gaining: After trading up and down on Friday, oil futures are rather rangebound this morning. There have not been any guiding signals from forex trading yet. Trading interest at NYMEX is clearly about average for this time of day. Many investors move their risk positions of WTI futures from March to April contracts as the front month expires on Wednesday this week (20.2.). Traders are now waiting for the European market to open and for fresh signals from forex trading. There are hardly any economic indicators on the agenda today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 15-02)
380cst $650
180cst $713
MGO $1055

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 15-02)
380cst $653
180cst $718
MGO $1060

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

WTI is gaining bearish momentum, losing with -$1.55. Paper for Mar is losing still with 180cst -$2.50 and for 380cst -$2.50, and Apr contracts with 180cst -$2.50, 380st -$2.50. The cargo market in line with crude and paper with 180cst -$2.75, 380cst -$4.48 and MGO +$0.12.

The Singapore fuel oil market closed the week dropping more than -$2.75 during the morning Platts window. The latest inventory figures saw a slight draw of -0.6 mbbl to 18.84 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were around $3.25 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps lost close to $9/mt at the front of the forward curve both for Rotterdam and Singapore papers. Backend was a few dollars stronger; with cal 2014 papers assessed app.$5.50/mt down. This morning markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $657
180 cst $661
MDO $995

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

We have seen a fair amount of demand in the market with about 11kT in Antwerp alone causing congestion ahead of the weekend There are still higher premiums added in Rotterdam due to operational delays and limited barge accessibility creating problems for prompt in Rotterdam. Barges in particular were queuing for two-three days to be loaded.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 639
(1.0 %) :$ 687
180cst: $ 663
(1.0 %):$ 718
MGO 0.1%S: $ 990