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Crude prices rose Wednesday ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting that analysts expect to end with the announcement of a stimulus plan for the U.S. economy. It was also lifted lifted by a German court decision in favour of a euro zone bailout fund and hopes the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy this week. Brent crude for October delivery, which expires on Thursday, was up 68 cents at $116.08 a barrel by 0853 GMT. It was on track for its highest close since Aug 16. U.S. crude for October delivery rose 44 cents to $97.61 a barrel.

Oil markets have seen some profit taking on Tuesday morning but supports remained strong, favouring a technical upward movement. In the course of the day oil futures have gradually edged higher particularly bolstered by forex trade. The German constitutional court's announcement yesterday that it would not delay its decision regarding the ESM boosted the euro in the morning. In the afternoon, data on US foreign trade (that showed that imports and exports had retreated) fuelled expectations that the Fed will intervene soon. Moody's criticised the debate on the US' budgetary policy pushing for a prompt solution and a cut of expenses, as the USA's AAA rating was otherwise threatened. These have all been factors that have weighed on the euro, making oil futures cheaper for investors outside the USA. This has triggered a buying pressure that has made oil prices at ICE and NYMEX rise to new highs until the evening. In addition to this, market players did not want to be caught on the wrong foot ahead of the Fed's decision due Thursday and so have closed some of their short positions. Oil futures thus remained higher until late in the evening settling near their intraday highs. The API's data, published at 10.30 p.m. last night, came out mixed and so did not have any larger impact on prices.

OPEC: Global oil demand is poised to be depressed for the next 18 months while supply levels from OPEC countries are at fairly comfortable levels, the West's energy agency the IEA said. The IEA said it made no significant changes to its global oil demand outlook and forecast demand would grow at a steady rate of around 0.8 million barrels per day (bpd) or 0.9% in both 2012 and 2013. Some analysts said the oil demand outlook would probably be marked down by the IEA in the future.

ICE Gasoil contract for September delivery settled at 996.50 dollars on Tuesday. This was 8.25 dollars above Monday's settlement. With some 36,100 contracts the traded volume was far below average.

The stochastic indicator is still bullish at ICE and NYMEX charts this morning. Therefore oil futures are likely to keep testing their upward potential in the course of the day. However, technical analysts expect that market participants will wait for the decisions of the German constitutional court and the Fed, putting the technical constellation into the background.

U.S.

Nymex access rising: Oil futures have edged higher in East-Asia and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning keeping track of their steady tendency. Strong Asian equities and the euro's gains support quotations. The traded volume is lower than average. Market players now eye stock and forex markets as well as today's economic indicators.

Experts expect that the shutdown of Gulf oil installations because of hurricane Isaac still has considerable impact on US oil inventories. Across-the-board draws in crude oil and product stocks seen as not all oil platforms are fully back to operation yet. Refinery run rate should have slightly increased, though.

API's: Crude oil +0.2; distillates +2.5; gasoline -4.2 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +0.1%
DOE's; due out tonight
Forecasts: Crude oil -1.5; distillates -0.9; gasoline -1.6 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 11-9)

380cst $668
180cst $705
MGO $1065

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 11-9)

380cst $665
180cst $703
MGO $1067

Singapore (correct as per 14:30hrs LT-delivered indications)

Crude is bullish with WTI +$1.12. Singapore paper is rising with +$3.25 for 180cst and +$2.70 for 380cst for Sep, and for Oct 180 cst +$3.20 and 380cst +$3.70 with MGO contracts Sep +$1.30 and Oct +$1.28. The cargo market is holding firm, gaining with 180cst +$1.13, 380cst +$4.22 and MGO -$0.59.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were up $1.0-4.0/mt during the morning Platts window yesterday tracking crude movements. This month incoming cargoes is estimated to be around 4.6 million mt with around 1.0 million mt reported going to end up in China. The delivered bunker premiums slipped to around $6.0 above the cargo prices yesterday. Bunker fuel oil swaps posted app.$4/mt gains along the curve for the Singapore papers yesterday. This morning the market is trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $685
180 cst $700
MGO $990

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA is well supplied, with some demand picking up. Shortages of high sulphur material continued to define the Antwerp market Tuesday. Supply had tightened due to maintenance at the Flushing Zeeland refinery. With short cutter stocks underpinning the markets and a heavy maintenance programme for September with two important North Sea oilfields set for a one month closure. High premiums are charged for prompt enquiries.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 667
(1.0 %) :$ 730
180cst: $ 688
(1.0 %):$ 754
MGO 0.1%S: $1000