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Technical indicators: neutral to bullish

Buoyed by the rather bullish technical constellation, oil prices will follow the euro/dollar parity and US unemployment figures in the afternoon. The report of the ECB on monetairy policy will be closely watched. Hints on a possible rate hike would apply pressure on the dollar and lift oil prices up.

Yesterday, after their early retreat in Asian trading on profit taking, oil futures moved in a narrow lateral range in electronic trade as market participants were anticipating OPEC decision on output policy. When the cartel announced that it would leave production quotas unchanged, oil prices surged immediately as the decision came as a surprise to oil-market participants, who had widely expected the group to boost its output ceiling. When first resistance lines were breached, technical buying orders lent additional support, driving oil prices even higher. Only in the region of the third resistance lines did the upward cycle ease. WTI crude even breached this line in late trade. DOE data, showing a strong fall in US crude stocks and a build in gasoline inventories, had not much influence on oil prices.

OPEC: With Saudi-Arabia considering to raise its output despite the OPEC's decision to not raise its quota, needed capacities in case of unexpected production losses might be lacking. By raising it's output Saudi-Arabia actually wanted to put an easing effect on oil prices.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 970.50 dollars Wednesday night. This was 16.00 dollars above Tuesday's settlement. Volume with some 73,200 deals well above average.

The stochastic indicator at the Gasoil, Brent and WTI chart is slighty bullish this morning while the RSI is still in neutral territory. The Stochastic thus supports the solid medium-term uptrend. For today, technical analysts consider possible some profit taking in the morning, but the overall tendency will be bullish. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 100.00 dollars, the first resistance at 101.60 dollars. Brent's first resistance is seen at 118.60 dollars, its first support is at 117.70 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access gaining. Oil prices trade in a narrow range on a high level in East Asia and Globex electronic trading this morning, still supported by the sharp fall in US crude stocks and OPEC's decision to leave oil output unchanged for the time being. The traded volume is slightly below average.

APIs: crude oil -5.5; distillates +1.8; gasoline -0.4 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +0.7%

DOEs: crude oil -4.8; distillates +0.8; gasoline +2.2 million barresl vs previous week. Refinery utilization +1.2%

Forecasts: Crude oil -0.9; distillates +0.4; gasoline +0.4 million barrels vs previous week.

Survey of US natural gas storage volumes according to EIA to be released later today for the week til June 3rd, 2011: +77.00 bcf (billion cubic feet) vs the previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 8-6)

380 cst $667
180 cst $697
MDO $987

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 8-6)

380 cst $669
180 cst $699
MDO $990

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is surging with +$3.24 Singapore paper gaining bullish momentum with +$9.85 for 180 cst and +$9.85 for 380 cst for Jun, and for Jul 180 cst +$10.70 and 380cst +$10.55 with MGO Jun contracts at +$1.85 and for Jul at +$1.81 The cargo market is in line with paper, gaining with 180cst +$4.71 380cst +$4.00 and MGO +$1.00.

The Singapore fuel oil market was up only around $4.50/mt during the Platts window yesterday tracking crude. The buying interest has waned with more sellers which weaken the Asian fuel oil crack yesterday. The delivered premiums were estimated at $10.00 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $665
180 cst $677
MDO $979

Fujairah (delivered indications 9-6)

380cst: $668
180cst: $696
MGO: $1025

Rotterdam

Yesterday in the MOC hsfo was traded between 640-642 usd and lsfo at 684 usd.

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $646
(1.0%): $688
180cst: $673
(1.0%): $714 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $977