---

Trends

Rotterdam (ARA) fuel oil - Trading USD 6 higher

Singapore fuel oil - Trading USD 10 higher

US Gulf - Expected to open USD 2 lower

Gulf of Mexico threatened by Hurricane Alex

WTI and Brent gained around 3% last Friday as fears about supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico heightened. This year's first named hurricane, Alex, is heading for the Gulf of Mexico as it is expected to gain more momentum in the next 48 hours. Mexico halted some of its oil exports as BP and Shell evacuated most of their off-shore platforms on Sunday.

G-20 meeting ended on Sunday

The meeting's tone was smoother and more unified than it was expected to be. World leaders agreed to curb deficits by 2013 following different strategies that are country-specific. Double-dip recession concerns and China's Yuan revaluation were not addressed directly.

Iran is becoming a major geopolitical concern

French energy group Total SA halted petrol sales to Iran in a move to support further sanctions against the country. Tougher sanctions against Iran caused disagreements between Russia and the West previously. Iran is increasing floating storage capacity as they have problems selling oil on the world market.

Today's important numbers include Eurozone M3 money supply, US personal spending and income and US National Activity Index. Focus this week will be on US non-farm payrolls on Friday.

Recommendation:

An active US hurricane season is on the horizon with seven or eight Category 3 and above hurricanes expected between July and September. Supply disruptions might cause oil price spikes such as last Friday's. We recommend taking advantage of market dips and securing prices against such spikes in the long-term. Technically we are back in the $77-80 dollar range.