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Commentary

Brent closed down $0.86 on Friday to $76.46 and WTI closed down $0.21 to $65.74. Brent has been fairly range bound and I made the point a few weeks ago that coming up to the OPEC meeting in Vienna on 22nd June that Brent would flirt in the 75-80 range until then, and this has proved true. However, I decided to look at last week's EIA data this morning and, would you believe it: a build on gasoline inventories. Quite a sizeable build as well, especially seeing that driving season has started. Perhaps Elon Musk has taken more of a grip on the US motor industry than the APi cares to acknowledge. Either that or every forecaster called it wrong. I'll let you decide which of those statements are true. On that note, JP Morgan have decided that they were wrong too. Their latest report says "oil fundamentals are expected to weaken in 2019 on the back of stronger-than-expected non-OPEC supply...". Weren't they forecasting 90 dollar crude not long ago? Let's couple this with the fact the rig count is close to a three-and-a-half-year high, the US are ever closer to overtaking Russia as the worlds biggest oil supplier (something we stated December 2017) and the Brent/WTI spread is perilously close to -11. Maybe this old sage was right. But like a broken clock, even that's right twice a day. Good day and week to all.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 1:30pm: Bloomberg forecast of U.S. waterborne LPG exports

* Today: Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillates inventories before Wednesday’s EIA report

* See OIL WEEKLY AGENDA for this week’s events

Singapore 380 cSt

Jul18 - 435.75 / 437.75

Aug18 - 431.50 / 433.50

Sep18 - 427.50 / 429.50

Oct18 - 423.75 / 425.75

Nov18 - 419.25 / 421.25

Dec18 - 415.75 / 417.75

Q3-18 - 431.50 / 433.50

Q4-18 - 419.00 / 421.00

Q1-19 - 407.00 / 409.50

Q2-19 - 394.50 / 397.00

CAL19 - 372.50 / 375.50

CAL20 - 300.00 / 305.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Jul18 - 445.75 / 447.75

Aug18 - 441.75 / 443.75

Sep18 - 438.00 / 440.00

Oct18 - 434.25 / 436.25

Nov18 - 430.25 / 432.25

Dec18 - 427.00 / 429.00

Q3-18 - 441.75 / 443.75

Q4-18 - 429.75 / 431.75

Q1-19 - 418.25 / 420.75

Q2-19 - 406.25 / 408.75

CAL19 - 387.00 / 390.00

CAL20 - 314.00 / 319.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Jul18 - 419.50 / 421.50

Aug18 - 415.75 / 417.75

Sep18 - 411.75 / 413.75

Oct18 - 407.25 / 409.25

Nov18 - 402.75 / 404.75

Dec18 - 398.25 / 400.25

Q3-18 - 415.50 / 417.50

Q4-18 - 402.00 / 404.00

Q1-19 - 391.00 / 393.50

Q2-19 - 378.00 / 380.50

CAL19 - 351.50 / 354.50

CAL20 - 285.00 / 290.00