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Commentary

Brent closed last night at $71.58, up $0.16, and WTI closed at $66.52, up $0.30. Another Wednesday and another round of EIA data. I have to say that the market hasn't been reacting as dramatically as it used to when numbers first came out, though. The market seems to sit back and read them like it's reading a Mark Twain novel and then jump into action about 7 minutes after numbers are announced. I touched on this a few months ago; the US is now the second biggest oil producer in the world and will more than likely overtake Russia in perhaps the next 9 months, so why would crude oil storage levels in the US have any bearing on the oil price? It's a good question and one which the market I think is asking itself. EIA numbers are used by traders to now try and map out over the course of the coming week where crude oil will come from to service the shorts into Asia etc. Let's bear in mind that US crude exports are up 75% year over year. The week ending March 30th, the US exported 2.175mn bpd of crude. That's more than Nigeria. Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producing country and the 6th biggest on the planet. The 6th. The US are exporting more than Nigeria. Yet the market is at $72 per bbl. Thank the lord that Venezuela is in economic peril; the U.S. is definitely making hay while the sun shines. They must also be looking at the situation in the Middle East from their comfy Texan armchairs and rubbing their hands together. So much hay-making that I'm starting to get hay fever just writing this report. Your friendly neighbourhood API brainiacs forecast a draw in US crude this week.

Fuel Oil Market (April 17)

The front crack opened at -12.40, strengthening to -12.25, before weakening to -12.70, closing -12.50. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.80.

Cash premiums of Asia's 180 cSt and 380 cSt high-sulphur fuel oil extended gains on Tuesday, boosted by concerns of near-term supply constraints, industry sources said. Cash premiums of 180 cSt fuel oil jumped to their highest since May, while premiums of the mainstay 380 cSt fuel oil rose to a more than two-month high.

Economic Data and Events

* 3:30pm EIA weekly oil inventory report

* Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

* JODI issues world oil exports and output data

Singapore 380 cSt

May18 - 384.25 / 386.25

Jun18 -383.50 / 385.50

Jul18 - 382.25 / 384.25

Aug18 - 380.50 / 382.50

Sep18 - 378.50 / 380.50

Oct18 - 376.50 / 378.50

Q3-18 - 380.50 / 382.50

Q4-18 - 374.00 / 376.00

Q1-19 - 365.25 / 367.75

Q2-19 - 358.00 / 360.50

CAL19 - 340.00 / 343.00

CAL20 - 275.00 / 280.00

Singapore 180 cSt

May18 - 395.50 / 397.50

Jun18 - 394.75 / 396.75

Jul18 - 393.25 / 395.25

Aug18 - 391.50 / 393.50

Sep18 - 389.50 / 391.50

Oct18 - 387.50 / 389.50

Q3-18 - 391.50 / 393.50

Q4-18 - 385.00 / 387.00

Q1-19 - 376.50 / 379.00

Q2-19 - 370.50 / 373.00

CAL19 - 355.00 / 358.00

CAL20 - 299.00 / 304.00

Rotterdam Barges

May18 372.00 / 374.00

Jun18 371.50 / 373.50

Jul18 370.00 / 372.00

Aug18 368.00 / 370.00

Sep18 365.25 / 367.25

Oct18 - 362.00 / 364.00

Q3-18 367.75 / 369.75

Q4-18 58.25 / 360.25

Q1-19 350.00 / 352.50

Q2-18 341.00 / 343.50

CAL19 320.50 / 323.50

CAL20 261.50 / 266.50