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By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Brent closed up 0.95 Friday to $48.58 and WTI closed at $46.04 up 1.11. So, for the first time in 6 months the US rig count actually fell last week. We mentioned on Friday that the only real factor that could encourage the bulls to pile in to crude was if the US rig count starts to level off. This came to pass last Friday. So, where are we left? Well, in kind of no man's land really. The market seems to be in this colossal tug of war because the minute US production shows signs of slowing, OPEC announce that their production was up in June. So bullish the rig count is falling, but bearish that OPEC output showed an increase last month. It's interesting that the dynamic of the oil market seems to be so sharp at the moment, i.e. a hint of news one way or the other in what's going on with shale and what's happening with OPEC. Right now they seem to be levelling each other out. I think we will be in a range for a while yet, but I don't think we will be up at $60 in any time soon - that is unless OPEC production starts to fall as well. I imagine we will see a quiet day today with US holidays tomorrow for Independence day and long weekends for many.

Economic Data/Events: (UK times)

* 9:30am: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at an academic macro-economy conference hosted by the Bank of England, London

* ~12pm: ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* 2:45pm: U.S. Markit PMI manufacturing for June, final, est. 52.1 (prior 52.1)

* 3pm: U.S. ISM manufacturing for June, est. 55.2 (prior 54.9)

* Today:

** Bloomberg to publish survey-based estimates of OPEC crude production for June; report may be delayed until Tuesday

** Some North Sea loading programs for August may emerge if not already issued

** Final Caspian CPC crude program for July

Singapore 380 cSt

Aug17 - 296.25 / 298.25

Sep17 - 294.25 / 296.25

Oct17 - 292.50 / 294.50

Nov17 - 291.25 / 293.25

Dec17 - 290.25 / 292.25

Jan18 - 289.50 / 291.50

Q4-17 - 294.25 / 296.25

Q1-18 - 290.25 / 292.25

Q2-18 - 289.75 / 292.25

Q3-18 - 289.50 / 292.50

CAL18 - 288.00 / 291.50

CAL19 - 284.25 / 289.75

CAL20 - 263.75 / 271.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Aug17 - 301.50 / 303.50

Sep17 - 299.75 / 301.75

Oct17 - 298.00 / 300.00

Nov17 - 297.50 / 299.50

Dec17 - 296.75 / 298.75

Jan18 - 296.00 / 298.00

Q4-17 - 297.50 / 299.50

Q1-18 - 297.25 / 299.25

Q2-18 - 297.00 / 299.50

Q3-18 - 297.00 / 300.00

CAL18 - 295.25 / 298.75

CAL19 - 292.25 / 297.75

CAL20 - 272.75 / 280.75

Rotterdam 380 cSt

Aug17 281.50 / 283.50

Sep17 278.25 / 280.25

Oct17 275.75 / 277.75

Nov17 273.50 / 275.50

Dec17 271.25 / 273.25

Jan18 272.75 / 274.75

Q4-17 273.50 / 275.50

Q1-18 273.50 / 275.50

Q2-18 274.50 / 277.00

Q3-18 275.00 / 278.00

CAL18 272.75 / 276.25

CAL19 266.75 / 272.25

CAL20 240.50 / 248.50

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