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By Michael Poulson, A/S Global Risk Management

Markets continue to focus on the record-high U.S. crude oil stocks and increasing shale oil production. So tonight's weekly oil rig count from Baker Hughes will be followed closely and could cause additional market volatility. The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has been increasing for two months now as oil prices have climbed following the OPEC and non-OPEC production cut deal. Just a question to consider: rig count and production increased as oil prices climbed above $50 - will the increase continue as the prices head lower?

This week, OPEC-member Saudi Arabia met with U.S. shale oil firms. Comments from the closed-door meeting and this week's conference in Houston have been that OPEC will give "no free ride" for shale oil producers.

In Libya, the unrest continues with fighting near the country's biggest oil export terminals. Recently, Libya managed to increase oil output to around 700,000 bpd.

Iranian oil exports climbed above 3 mio. barrels per day over the last weeks according to the country's oil minister. Since the lifting of international sanctions against the country, oil exports have increased from around 1 mio. barrels per day. Along with Libya and Nigeria, Iran is exempt from the current OPEC production cut deal and can even adjust production up with 90,000 barrels per day according to the deal.

The ECB press conference yesterday was a non-event with unchanged policy measures by Draghi - he saw less risk to the downside and inflation and GDP estimates were raised slightly. Today, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls will be the key economic event to watch. Consensus is a strong report after Wednesday's ADP figures, raising expectations of an interest rate hike by the Fed next week.

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A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.