Fri 18 Dec 2015, 12:30 GMT

Global Vision Market Report


Market report from Global Vision Bunkers B.V.



Crude futures were mixed in Asian trading this morning as fresh signs of inventory building and the Fed's rate hike this week kept prices under pressure amid a global glut of oil that shows no sign of abating, prompting traders to buy more put options.

Bearish market fundamentals and the bearish technical constellation favoured further tests of the downside at oil markets on Thursday morning. Oil futures thus slipped below Wednesday's lows in early European trading. However, this didn't generate any technical selling cues and so selling orders ebbed. Just after midday, oil futures retraced earlier losses. Gasoline surged, dragging the other futures along. This was due to the fact that the market environment is slightly bullish for gasoline in the USA. Whilst refinery output declined, a relatively high level of gasoline demand (compared to the same period in 2014) and lower stockpiles. The constellation for the rest of the oil complex remained bearish, however. That is why oil prices failed to show a sustainable rally. Whilst gasoline futures stayed on a high level until Thursday evening, the other contracts tended to the downside. High stockpiles (DOE), oversupplies and a mild winter in North America, Europe and Asia continued to put pressure on prices. Moreover, data provider Genscape reported renewed stock builds in Cushing, Oklahoma. This generated even more selling pressure that sent crude oil futures down in the first place. However, the other contracts kept track of the decline in crude oil futures. Even though Gasoil remained above the lows it had hit Thursday morning, it ended the day clearly in the red - as did Brent and WTI.

ICE Gasoil contract for January delivery settled at 336.00 USD on Thursday, this is -1.50 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 72,300 deals, the traded volume (front month) was above average.

Since the lines of the Stochastic indicator have crossed at the Brent and the WTI chart, the indicator has meanwhile generated selling signals at these charts. At the Gasoil chart the indicator hasn't given a bearish signal yet. The crude oil contracts haven't dropped below Thursday's lows yet. These levels are regarded as key supports today. If the crude oil futures sustainably fall below these levels, the might find more support near Monday's lows at 36.33 USD (Brent) and 34.53 USD (WTI) on their way down. However, there might be some short-covering now and again as many traders close their books ahead of the weekend and the Christmas holidays. In doing so, they will focus on cutting the short-positions they had raised over the past few days. That is why a technical upward correction at oil markets can't be excluded. Nonetheless, the technical constellation is still slightly bearish this morning. A break below Thursday's lows would add to selling pressure.

U.S.

Nymex is above average: Oil futures pulled back from Thursday's lows in electronic trade this morning, fostered by short-covering. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average this morning. Investors are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open today as well as for the release of some economic indicators.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-12)
380cst $152
180cst $229
MGO $368

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 18-12)
380cst $189
180cst $245
MGO $383

Singapore (delivered indications 18-12)

Brent is down with +$0.04 for December contracts. Singapore paper is bearish with -$0.75 for 180cst with -$0.50 for 380cst for Jan, and for Feb 180 cst -$0.10 and 380cst with -$0.25 with MGO contracts Jan with +$0.05 and in Feb with +$0.07 .The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$7.18, 380cst with -$7.71 and MGO with -$1.44.

380cst $163
180cst $178
MGO $328

Fujairah (delivered indications 18-12)

380cst $165
180cst $204
MGO $589

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $153
MGO 0.1%S: $303

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