---

Crude oil prices rebounded in Asia this morning after a slew of data on manufacturing painted a mixed, but hopeful, regional picture.

Oil prices started in a narrow range at ICE and NYMEX Wednesday morning, searching for direction after a bearish API report released the night before. At the beginning of the European session some short covering helped prices up but the gains were only modest. Additional support, in particular for the product futures at the NYMEX, came from the news on a hurricane heading towards the U.S. East coast were it could impair oil loading in the course of next week, while the WTI's short-term technical triangle limited the upside at this time of the day. At the beginning of the session in New York oil was propelled by Wall Street where the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped right after the opening. When the WTI breached the upper limit of its short-term technical triangle oil's rise was accelerated. But the 49.00 USD Brent resistance and the 45.80 USD WTI resistance limited the gains in a market waiting for the release of the official DoE report on U.S. oil stocks. The DoE confirmed the bearish data the API had released the night before but the reaction of the market was rather muted. Prices stayed volatile after the data, also affected by the expiry of NYMEX gasoline and heating oil contracts, but finished more or less at opening level in London and New York.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 464.00 USD on Wednesday, this is 1.00 USD below Tuesday's settlement. With some 43,100 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The two lines of the Stochastic indicator have crossed this morning, triggering a buying signal at all charts. The WTI on Wednesday breached the upper limit of the technical triangle, opening more upside to prices. The 21-day moving average lines serve as a key resistance at the ICE and NYMEX charts. If these resistances are breached more technically driven buying orders will be triggered. The WTI is meanwhile trying to breach the 45.80 USD resistance, upper limit of the next technical triangle, but the medium-term triangle should limit oil's upside at 46.50 USD. While the technical constellation this morning favours more upside to prices we consider it only slightly bullish, despite the Stochastic's buying orders. Should more key resistances be breached, however, we will change to bullish.

U.S.

Nymex above average : Oil prices rose in Asia and Globex electronic trade this morning, breaching their first resistance lines in the process, supported by the encouraging Chinese indicators, technical movements and news on hurricane Joaquin. The traded volume at NYMEX is well above average this morning. Market players are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open and for the release of quite a few economic indicators.

Forecast: Crude oil +3.0; Distillates -1.5; Gasoline -1.5 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +4.0; Distillates -0.3; Gasoline +3.3 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +7.1; Distillates +1.0; Gasoline -1.3 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 1-10)
380cst $219
180cst $267
MGO $477

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 1-10)
380cst $230
180cst $282
MGO $467

Singapore (delivered indications 1-10)

Brent is gaining with +$0.64. Singapore paper gaining with +$4.75 for 180cst with +$6.00 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst +$4.45 and 380cst with +$4.65 with MGO contracts Oct gaining with +$0.67 and in Nov with +$0.74. The cargo market is gaining with 180cst +$3.20, 380cst with +$2.95 and MGO with +$0.41.

380cst $228
180cst $243
MGO $437

Fujairah (delivered indications 1-10)

380cst $233
180cst $255
MGO $606

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $218
MGO 0.1%S: $428