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Crude oil futures declined this morning, one day after rallying sharply on the back of a broadly weaker U.S. dollar.

Trading at oil markets was rather subdued on Wednesday morning as investors were looking ahead to the release of the DOE's data on US oil inventories and the FOMC's statement. After, Thursday night, the API had reported massive builds in US crude oil inventories, particularly crude oil futures were under pressure whereas product futures held comparatively steady. WTI hit a fresh 6-year-low but failed to breach its support at € 39.83. In the afternoon, the DOE confirmed the sharp rise in crude oil stockpiles. US oil output increased as well and so, the data was interpreted as bearish. Whilst WTI remained near its long-term lows after the release of the DOE's report, the other futures gained ground. This was due to spreadbets by means of which market players bet on a widening price difference between Brent and WTI, They raised their short positions in WTI and increased their long positions in Brent. Consequently, oil futures at ICE rose, surpassing several resistances in late afternoon-trade. The statement following the FOMC's meeting on Wednesday evening made oil prices surge overnight - even WTI. The US central bankers downwardly revised their forecasts on economic growth and inflation. This leads to a decline in the dollar making oil futures cheaper for investors outside the USA. This triggered technical buying signals. Despite the DOE's bearish report on US oil inventories, futures at ICE and NYMEX finished with considerable gains on Wednesday thanks to spreadbets and the FOMC's statement.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at € 491.14 on Wednesday, this is +€ 9 above Tuesday's settlement. With some 68,800 deals the traded volume (front month) was above average.

The stochastic indicator gave buying signals at the ICE and NYMEX charts on Wednesday evening favouring a technical rise. Oil futures thus surpassed several important resistances breaking above their short-term downtrends. The RSI hasn't confirmed these technical buying signals yet as it hasn't sustainably breached the 30% mark at the Brent and the WTI chart. Even though yesterday evening's price increase is likely to have spent most of the technical buying cues, the buying signals of the stochastic indicator has rendered the technical constellation rather bullish. This bias would become even stronger if the RSI provided new signals. However, investors are currently rather focusing on market fundamentals than the technical constellation.

U.S.

Nymex far above average: Futures have lost some ground again in electronic trading this morning. After prices had surged on Wednesday evening, many market players took profits this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of the day which is due to the imminent expiry of the April WTI contract. Investors are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open, for news concerning the nuclear negotiations with Iran and for today's economic indicators.

Forecast: Crude oil +3.3; Distillates -0.5; Gasoline -0.9 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +9.6; Distillates +0.4; Gasoline -4.5 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +10.5; Distillates -0.3; Gasoline -0.6 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 19-3)
380cst $304
180cst $465
MGO $603

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 19-3)
380cst $313
180cst $364
MGO $603

Singapore (delivered indications 19-3)

WTI is gaining with +$6.50. Singapore paper is up with +$6.50 for 180cst with +$6.40 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst +$6.35 and 380cst with +$6.25 with MGO contracts Apr gaining with +$2.35 and in May with +$2.40. The cargo market is bullish with 180cst +$0.18, 380cst with -$0.69 and MGO bearish with +$0.09.

380cst $314
180cst $333
MGO $530

Fujairah (delivered indications 19-3)

380cst $314
180cst $343
MGO $745

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $293
MGO 0.1%S: $523