Thu 23 Oct 2014, 12:14 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



WTI oil futures extended losses from the previous session to trade near a two-year low this morning, as ongoing concerns over rising supplies and weakening demand weighed.

A technical bullish constellation was generated by fresh buying signals which indicated a firm price development at the oil market on Wednesday morning. Prices at the ICE used their upward scope that was generated by the breach of important resistances the evening before and consolidated on a high level until U.S. oil stock data was released. The DoE data was bearish und triggered a late selling wave. At the ICE the supports near intraday lows limited the downward movement as some market players prefered going long because of the morning's technical buying signals. But finally selling pressure predominated and led to a fall belwo the intraday lows and the breach of the supports. Therefore stop loss selling orders were triggered automatically which traders had placed in the market before to limit their losses. The sharp price decline was even accelerated by technically driven selling orders and so futures settled significantly lower in London and New York.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 741.75 USD on Wednesday, this is 6.00 USD above Tuesday's settlement. With some 60,500 deals the traded volume (front month) was far above average.

The stochastic indicator changed direction and is triggering fresh selling signals after the crossing of its lines and dropping below the 50 line. The RSI dropped again under the 30 line, but generated no selling signal so that the indicator stays neutral. The stochastic indicator favors further downside tests but selling pressure should have been absorbed after yesterday's important losses. At the WTI chart the important support at 80.00 USD currently limits further downward movement. We consider the technical constellation as neutral to bearish this morning.

U.S.

Nymex above avarage: Currently futures consolidate on a low level after WTI fell as low as its psychological support at 80.00 USD. The traded volume is far above average at this time of day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the exchange market to open and will eye the situation in the geopolitical hotspots and a series of economic indicators to be released today.

Forecast: Crude oil +3.0; Distillates -1.5; Gasoline -1.5 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +7.1; Distillates +1.0; Gasoline -1.3 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +1.2; Distillates -0.8; Gasoline -0.5 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 23-10)
380cst $469
180cst $572
MGO $846

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 23-10)
380cst $471
180cst $561
MGO $847

Singapore (delivered indications 23-10)

WTI is losing with -$1.09 Singapore paper is down with -$6.00 for 180cst with -$6.00 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst -$6.60 and 380cst with -$6.35 with MGO contracts Nov losing with -$0.68 and in Dec with -$0.68. The cargo market is losing with 180cst -$3.74, 380cst with -$3.38 and MGO with -$0.44.

The Singapore market was closed yesterday for public holiday and reopened today.

380cst $472
180cst $488
MGO $725

Fujairah (delivered indications 23-10)

380cst $489
180cst $535
MGO $950

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $453
(1.0 %) : $473
MGO 0.1%S: $718

MGO  

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