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Market in Brief

No much change yesterday where Crude Oil has completed a technical cycle and is trying to rebound after the last week’s heavy sell-off. The August Brent futures closed at $106.98/bbl, up $0.32 and WTI gained $0.08 to $100.91/bbl. With no significant price drivers trading volumes were below average yesterday. In the coming weeks investors will likely focus on the announced return of 560k bbl on the market from Libya. Any disappointment from the expected Libyan supply will likely send Oil price quickly back towards $110/bbl. The US WTI crude remains firm on the other hand waiting for the weekly release of the US Inventory Report tomorrow. Today in terms of data we will be looking at the June US Retails Sales and also US Federal Reserve chairperson’s testimony to the Senate Committee. This morning, crude prices are trading slightly down.

Fuel oil Specifics

The Northwest European bunker fuel oil markets started the week trading lower. Delivered 380cts product both in Antwerp and Rotterdam lost another dollar as crude oil weakened further. Suppliers reported only small fixed volumes and competitive offers. The Singapore fuel oil prices traded lower, erasing previous gains by -$5.0 to -$2.5 during the Asian Platts window yesterday. The Asain fuel oil crack narrowed considerably while the physical cargoes market saw a total traded volume of 260kt with BP as the main buying player with Glencore being the main seller. The delivered bunker premiums were slightly up, traded at app.$6.0 above cargo. This morning both markets are trading marginally higher.

Forward Indications

Product	Aug	Sep	Oct	Q414	Q115	Q215
NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month)	100,10	99,60	99,14	98,62	97,24	95,99
ICE Brent Swap (1st month)	107,55	107,92	108,03	107,90	107,28	106,69
ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	887,00	891,33	894,92	896,36	-	-
3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm	570,25	568,75	567,50	566,25	567,50	565,25
3.5% Cargoes FOB Med	567,50	565,50	564,50	563,25	562,25	566,25
1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE	594,75	594,75	592,75	590,00	586,50	585,00
3% no. 6 USGC WB	89,00	88,95	88,85	88,75	88,76	88,43
380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore	592,25	590,50	589,00	588,25	588,75	586,50
0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm	886,25	890,25	894,25	896,25	-	-
Physical Rotterdam 380 CST	575,50	574,00	572,75	571,50	572,75	570,50
Physical Singapore 380 CST	597,50	595,75	594,25	593,50	594,00	591,75

Economic fundamentals this week

Statistic	Importance	Date	Time	Period	Consensus	Last	Actual
Retail Sales	High	15-Jul	8:30 AM	Jun	0.70%	0.30%	-
Empire Manufacturing	Medium	15-Jul	8:30 AM	Jun	10	19.3	-
Business Inventories	Medium	15-Jul	10:00 AM	May	0.50%	0.60%	-
Core PPI	Medium	16-Jul	8:30 AM	Jun	0.20%	-0.10%	-
Industrial Production	Medium	16-Jul	9:15 AM	Jun	0.40%	0.60%	-
NAHB Housing Market Index	Medium	16-Jul	10:00 AM	Jul	50	49	-
Initial Claims	Medium	17-Jul	8:30 AM	12-jul	315K	304K	-
Housing Starts	Medium	17-Jul	8:30 AM	Jun	975K	1001K	-
Philadelphia Fed	Medium	17-Jul	10:00 AM	Jul	10	17.8	-
Mich Sentiment	High	18-Jul	9:55 AM	Jul	87	82.5	-
leading Indicators	Medium	18-Jul	10:00 AM	Jun	0.60%	0.50%	-