Fri 6 Jun 2014, 14:04 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude oil futures were almost unchanged this morning, as markets awaited the release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data later in the day after last week's jobless claims came out higher than expected.

Oil prices at ICE and NYMEX stabilised in Asia and Europe on Thursday, moving in a tight range in a market digesting the past days' losses. Cautious profit taking could be seen as bearish fundamentals kept weighing. But no big deals were made as investors at the oil market in London and New York - as did every single trader in the financial and currency market - expected the ECB to take a historical step. When Mario Draghi finally announced expansive measures, even though modest, market volatility rose considerably. The euro was most effect. After an initial sharp slump the single currency recovered an even settled in the green in the end. The oil market reacted by taking some profit but losses were limited as the ECB's intervention also has a supportive effect on economic growth . The first resistances were breached at ICE and NYMEX when oil prices regained the ground lost in the wake of the euro's rise. The Stochastic indicator then gave a buying signal at ICE and NYMEX charts that favored technically motivated buying orders. On the geopolitical front the market has been slightly supported by the threat of fresh sanctions of the G7 members against Russia that could return the Ukrainian crises in the focus of market attention. Traders are therefore not inclined to reduce the geopolitical risk premium on oil. Oil futures eventually settled higher in London and New York.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 883.75 USD on Thursday, unchanged vs Wednesday's settlement. With some 43,000 deals, the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The Stochastic indicator gave a buying signal at all charts Thursday upon the crossing of its two lines and is still seen bullish today, but its upward potential has been partially absorbed by Thursday's price jump. The RSI could reinforce the Stochastic's buying signal should it breach through the 30 line from bottom to top. As long as such signals fail to materialize we consider the technical constellation as only slightly bullish today.

U.S.

Nymex below avarage: After yesterday's sharp rise oil futures consolidate their gains, trading in a tight range near Thursday's highs in a market that is looking for direction after the ECB's decision to cut interest rates. The traded volume at NYMEX is below average at this time of day. Market players anticipate the opening of stock and forex markets and will keep an eye on today's indicators on U.S. employment.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 6-6)
380cst $603
180cst $723
MGO $977

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 6-6)
380cst $605
180cst $686
MGO $979

Singapore (delivered indications 6-6)

WTI is up with +$0.26. Singapore paper is down with +$3.00 for 180cst and +$4.00 for 380cst for Jun, and for Jul 180 cst +$3.50 and 380cst with +$3.75 with MGO contracts being bearish in Jun with +$1.11 and in Jul with +$1.19. The cargo market is bearish with 180 cst -$7.09, 380cst with -$4.77 and MGO is down with -$0.95.

Singapore fuel oil prices fell ranging between -$7.0 to -$4.5 during the Platts window yesterday. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory was reported to be 21.06 mbbl, seeing a draw of -2.33 mbbl. Delivered bunker premiums were lower around -$3.5 above cargo prices yesterday. In Rotterdam Barges fell two dollars. Delivered bunker premiums were unchanged at roughly $1 above cargo prices.

380cst $602
180cst $624
MGO $890

Fujairah (delivered indications 6-6)

380cst $608
180cst $642
MGO $982

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

380cst : $578
(1.0 %) : $641
180cst: $618
MGO 0.1%S: $858

MGO  

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