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Crude oil prices were flat to slightly weaker in Asia this morning ahead of industry data on U.S. stocks and bearish sentiment on China demand.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX remained relatively steady on Monday morning fostered by the slightly bullish technical constellation. They tested their upward potential, with WTI rising more sharply than the other contracts, supported by a buying signal of the RSI. Brent's important resistance at 109.00 USD remained strong, however, limiting the upside in the first half of the day. Trade was rather thin at that time of day as many British traders were absent due to the Early May Bank Holiday. Therefore, market participants focused on US trade. When NYMEX floor trade opened, volumes increased. In the course of the afternoon, investors took more and more profits from their long positions. Futures breached several supports generating a technical sell-off. Ahead of the weekend, traders had hedged the risk of an escalation in Ukraine by raising their short positions. But yesterday afternoon, they cut these strategic long positions despite heavy fighting in Ukraine. Analysts say that the decline in oil futures was mainly caused by the disappointing economic data released in China earlier on Monday. Moreover US crude oil stocks, which are to show a new record high this week, weighed on prices. The fact that Russia avoided further threats of military action despite the fighting in the east of Ukraine, was enough reason for market players to take profits from their long positions. The economic indicators released in the USA later in the afternoon but briefly limited losses at oil markets. Thus, futures at ICE as well as at NYMEX settled with considerable losses.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 898.00 dollars on Monday. This was 11.50 USD below Friday's settlement. With some 18,100 deals, the traded volume was far below average.

The lines of the stochastic indicator are converging again at ICE charts not drifting further apart after having crossed on Friday. Thus, the indicator can be seen as neutral again at those charts, whereas it is still slightly bullish at the WTI chart. The RSI has dropped back below 30% at the WTI chart, however, and so yesterday's buying signal has waned. Given the neutral indicators at ICE charts, we therefore assess the technical situation as neutral this morning. The downtrends at ICE and NYMEX are still intact. The RSI might give another buying signal at the WTI chart, however, if it exceeds 30% once again.

U.S.

Nymex below average: After the losses oil futures marked yesterday afternoon, quotations are moving in a relatively tight range in a calm trading this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is far below average at this time of day. Investors are now eying stock and forex markets, the developments in Ukraine as well as today's economic indicators.

Forecasts: Crude oil +1.0; Distillates +0.7; Gasoline -0.9 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 6-5)
380cst $698
180cst $680
MGO $977

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 6-5)
380cst $609
180cst $657
MGO $978

Singapore (delivered indications 6-5)

WTI down slightly with -$0.73. Singapore paper is up with +$0.25 for 180cst and +$0.25 for 380cst for May, and for Jun 180 cst ±$0.00 and 380cst -$1.25 with MGO contracts slightly bullish May -$0.55 and Jun -$0.58. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst -$3.25, 380cst -$1.69 and MGO -$0.51.

The Singapore fuel oil prices opened the week, up more than +$1.0 during the Platts window. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a build of +2.01 mbbl to 22.38 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were between $5.00 and $8.25 above cargo prices yesterday.

380cst $585
180cst $606
MGO $920

Fujairah (delivered indications 6-5)

380cst $602
180cst $640
MGO $985

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

380cst : $573
(1.0 %) : $634
180cst: $513
MGO 0.1%S: $868