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Given that WTI already hit a low at 100.03 USD in NYMEX-floor-trading yesterday, analysts expect that it is only a matter of time until the U.S. benchmark falls below 100.00 USD. Despite the accord over a US-budget, the dollar remains under pressure. After having sharply declined versus other important currencies yesterday, the USD leveled off near 0.7320 Euro in Asian trading this morning - close to its lowest level since eight months.

Although trading started rather calm on Thursday, oil futures already breached first supports in the morning. After the first euphoria about the preliminary deal in U.S. budget disputes had gone, stock markets and the dollar strongly declined and so increased the selling pressure at the oil market. The considerable build in U.S. crude oil inventories and the promising start of nuke talks with Iran additionally weighed. Technically triggered selling orders then accelerated the downturn. As U.S. indicators came in rather mixed, they did not make an impact on oil prices. But weather forecasts of mild temperatures above zero for large areas in the USA from November to January were a distinct bearish factor yesterday, particularly for NYMEX Heating Oil futures, which marked their biggest daily loss in a month. Especially in the densely populated North-East of the country, where about 25% of the households are using heating oil, the winter is expected to be very mild. WTI fell to a 3.5-month low, a little above 100 USD, and settled - just like the other contracts - with heavy losses yesterday. This morning in Asian trading, oil markets seem to recover after recent figures showed that China's economy is on the right track.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 931.50 USD on Thursday. This was 20.75 USD above Wednesday's settlement. With some 87,200 deals, the traded volume was above average.

After the Stochastic gave off a selling signal for ICE futures yesterday, the indicator is slightly bearish today whereas it remains neutral for WTI where its lines are parallelling. The RSI is in the neutral zone at all charts, not giving of any signal yet. G.Oil escaped its medium-term uptrend to the bottom yesterday and WTI hit its day's low near its psychological support at 100 USD. Still, we consider the technical constellation as neutral this morning as fresh signals are lacking at the moment and expect markets to consolidate ahead of the weekend.

U.S.

Nymex bullish: After the massive losses incurred during yesterday's session, oil markets are slightly firming up again this morning in Asian trading. Chinese figures confirmed that the country's economy is growing in line with expectations and thus propped up oil prices a bit. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average for this time of day. Market players are now eying the performance of European markets, fresh signals from forex trading and a series of economic data. However, it is very likely that most of the data will not be released.

According to the Energy Department, the DOE's oil inventories data and the natural gas report are to be released again next week. This week's data is to be released on Monday 21. In a long-term perspective, WTI's drops below 100 USD have usally been rather short-lived. When the contract rose above 100 USD at the beginning of July, it hit a 14-month-high. Geopolitical tensions in Egypt, Syria and Libya have then pushed WTI up to a 28-month-high at 110.53 USD at the beginning of September. With the easing of tensions in the Middle East and the reconciliatory tone Iran's government has lately used, worries over supply bottlenecks have diminished and so the risk premium is reduced.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-10)
380cst $605
180cst $662
MGO $1005

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 18-10)
380cst $608
180cst $654
MGO $1008

Singapore

Crude is dropping with WTI -$1.16. Singapore paper is slightly bearish, losing with -$2.90 for 180cst and -$3.25 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst -$3.55 and 380cst -$2.75 with MGO contracts Nov -$3.55 and Dec -$2.75. The cargo market is yet to respond, gaining with 180cst +$5.30, 380cst +$4.66 and MGO +0.18.

380cst $617
180cst $622
MGO $935

Fujairah (delivered indications 18-10)

380cst $618
180cst $675
MGO $1005

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $589
(1.0 %) :$610
180cst: $619
(1.0 %):$ 640
MGO 0.1%S: $ 920