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The price of crude oil was moving lower Monday morning as traders digest a mixed batch of macroeconomic data out of Europe. Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures for September delivery, shed $0.66 to $106.28 a barrel. Last week, oil gained over 2 percent after some upbeat macroeconomic data out of the U.S. fueled hopes of continued demand growth for oil. This morning the U.S. dollar was trading flat versus the euro, while slipping toward a weekly low against sterling. The buck was moving lower versus the yen and little changed against the Swiss franc. In economic news, the euro area economy returned to expansion territory in July, as manufacturing output posted a solid growth and the trend in services activity moved close to stabilization, survey from Markit Economics showed. The final composite output index rose to 50.5 in July, a near two-year high, from 48.7 in June. The flash reading was 50.4.

Given oil futures’ surge on Wednesday and Thursday last week when they escaped their short-term downtrend, traders at ICE and NYMEX took first profits Friday morning and thus, consolidated their risk position ahead of the weekend. Without guiding signals, trading remained rather flat prior to the release of the official U.S. labour market statistics. But then, oil prices saw a massive decline. Although the unemployment rate had fallen by 0.2%, the fact that there had been far less new hires than expected was regarded as bearish for financial markets. As a result, profit-taking increased once again so that oil futures slumped to their supports at 108.50 USD (Brent) and 106.70 USD (WTI).

ICE Gasoil contract for August delivery settled at 923.75 USD on Friday. This was 3.25 USD below Thursday's settlement. With some 23,500 deals the traded volume was far below average. The Stochastic’s buying signal was used up during Wednesday’s and Thursday’s surge and the indicator’s lines are already converging again. The RSI currently is in the neutral zone where it remains for the time being. From the technical perspective, there are no hints at a downward correction yet since the stochastic oscillator only gives off a selling signal if its lines cross. Thus, we consider the technical constellation as neutral to bearish this morning, and an upward correction is to be expected in medium term, although potential should be limited at last week’s highs.

U.S.

Nymex bearish: After traders took profits on Friday and early this Monday morning, oil markets are firming up and return from their day’s lows. The euro’s sharp rise on Friday, the prospect of continuous monetary stimulus until the end of the year as well as export outages in the North Sea and in Libya support oil prices at the moment. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average for this time of day. Market players are now eying the open of European markets, new signals from forex trading and for the upcoming economic data.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 01-08 )
380cst $588
180cst $669
MGO $1009

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 01-08)
380cst $592
180cst $644
MGO $1004

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bearish with -$0.78. The paper market bullish still, gaining with Aug 180cst +$1.20 and for 380cst +$1.65, and Sept contracts with 180cst +$1.00, 380st +$0.80. The cargo market is bullish with 180cst +$2.60, and 380cst +$1.36 and MGO +$1.37.

380cst $602
180cst $604
MGO $925

Fujairah (delivered indications 05-08)

380cst $608
180cst $680
MGO $1060

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Due to the availability problems with hsfo ( long waiting time at refineries, only contracts with some ex wharf suppliers, less spot available at higher premiums) the spread between hsfo and lsfo is minimum.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $614
(1.0 %) :$616
180cst: $644
(1.0 %):$ 646
MGO 0.1%S: $ 890