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The price of crude oil slipped back below $105 Friday morning amid concerns over demand growth after China earlier this week reported downbeat manufacturing activity. Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures for September delivery, shed $1.04 to $104.45 a barrel. Yesterday, oil settled slightly higher as the dollar weakened against a basket of few major currencies and driven by some mixed macroeconomic data out of the U.S. -- tracking mainly the uptick in new orders for manufactured durable goods. In some encouraging economic news, the U.S. Commerce Department said new orders for manufactured durable goods rose much more than expected in June, with orders for transportation equipment showing a substantial increase. Oil futures had been trading rather flat during Thursday’s session. After an unexpected price decline on Wednesday, investors apparently were cautious to engage in new positions. As guiding economic indicators and fresh news were lacking, oil contracts had been largely rangebound until the release of positive U.S. figures in the early afternoon. For a start, durable goods orders came in better than expected and provided some momentum at the oil market. Then positive data out of Great Britain showed that the kingdom's economy had been growing in all sectors for the first time in three years. Of course, this gave oil prices another boost. In addition, as the dollar edged lower and Wall Street ticked up again, oil futures surged above their first resistances, triggering automatic buying orders which accelerated the upturn. Moreover, market players seized WTI’s two-week low (104.08 USD) to buy cheap. Although WTI’s strong resistance at 105.85 USD had limited gains, oil prices still settled at their day’s highs.

ICE Gasoil contract for August delivery settled at 913.75 USD on Thursday. This was 0.50 USD above Wednesday's settlement. With some 37,900 deals the traded volume was below average.

As oil prices had declined on Tuesday and Wednesday, short-term downward trend channels have formed at all charts which are still intact. The Stochastic is only slightly bearish at the WTI chart whereas the indicator’s lines are already converging again at ICE charts. If they crossed, they could give off a bullish signal in the course of the day – also for the American crude. The RSI remains neutral at all charts. As long as clear buying signals are lacking, we consider the technical constellation as neutral, the more so as all contracts fell back to the 21-day Moving Average and would trigger a bearish signal if they fell below this marker.

U.S.

Nymex bearish:Oil prices at ICE and NYMEX are moving hardly changed at yesterday’s closing level in early Asian trading this morning, still drawing support from the positive data on durable goods orders in the USA and from the stronger euro vs. the dollar. The traded volume at NYMEX is far below average for this time of day. Market players are now waiting for European markets to open and for new clues from forex trading. There are only a few economic indicators on the agenda today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 25-07 )
380cst $588
180cst $671
MGO $1004

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 25-07)
380cst $593
180cst $636
MGO $1006

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bearish with -$0.40. The paper market mainly bearish still, loosing with Aug 180cst -$2.80 and for 380cst -$2.78, and Sept contracts with 180cst -$2.00, 380st -$2.75. The cargo market is following with 180cst -$4.89, and 380cst -$5.50 and MGO +$0.61.

The Singapore fuel oil market fell around -$5.0 during the Platts window tracking yesterday’s crude movements. The Singapore heavy residual inventory saw a build of +1.61 m. bbl. after weeks of draw to 20.53 m. bbl. The delivered bunker premiums were around $6.0 above cargo prices.

380cst $596
180cst $599
MGO $910

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $598
(1.0 %) :$605
180cst: $624
(1.0 %):$ 631
MGO 0.1%S: $ 888