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Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX have slightly declined in the first hours of European trading. While G.Oil has already breached its first support, Brent and WTI stayed within their technical trading range. The oil market has received a slightly bearish signal from the Chinese consumer price index, which stoked fears that China’s central bank might renounce more expensive measures which could curb the country’s economy and thus oil demand. In addition, technical selling signals at ICE charts also slightly pressure prices at the moment. WTI’s fluctuations have been rather negligible.

Oil prices in London and New York had already slipped during European trade Monday morning and slumped through several supports until the afternoon. After reaching fresh highs for several straight days (WTI at 104.12 climbed to a 14-month high on Monday), oil markets ran out of steam. Although concerns over supply bottlenecks due to the persisting unrest in Egypt continue to hold oil traders in suspense, which is also why downward potential had remained limited, market players still liquidated some of their long positions placed at the beginning of the week. That said, Friday’s upturn can also be largely attributed to the fact that the trade volume was very low after the U.S. holiday (Independence Day on Thursday) and thus, oil's rise has been deemed exaggerated. Consequently, oil futures saw a wave of profit-taking. However, the strong supports at 907.75 USD (G.Oil) and at 102.25 USD (WTI) stopped the downward correction since automatically triggered buying orders prevented more technical selling. Adding to the bullish potential was the ongoing turmoil in Egypt. In the end, oil prices at ICE settled near their day’s lows. WTI could recover from its price slump and made some late gains as the U.S. crude benchmark is less affected by the current geopolitical situation in Egypt and could additionally benefit from positive economic indicators released in the USA.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 913.25 USD on Monday. This was 1.50 USD above Friday's settlement. With some 30,600 deals, the traded volume was still clearly above average.

The Stochastic indicator has given off a first selling single at the Brent and G.Oil chart after its both lines had crossed. However, the indicator’s lines could soon converge again if no more bearish signals were triggered again. At the WTI chart, the Stochastic is still neutral. The RSI as well as the Stochastic indicate a strongly overbought market situation, favouring a downward correction. The short-term uptrend channels provide enough leeway for oil prices to correct downward. But for a sustainable correction more technical selling signals are needed. Thus, the technical constellation is considered only slightly bearish at the moment.

U.S.

Nymex bearish: Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX have been trading slightly choppy this morning, but hardly changed compared to Monday’s session, since there are now fresh news and neither the technical analysis nor forex trading is providing any new signals. Not even Chinese indicators released at night could give direction at the oil market. Trade volume at NYMEX is above average for this time of day. Investors are now waiting for the European markets to open and for the development in Egypt. In terms of economic data, there’s only the U.S. Redbook on the agenda today. Thus, market players may already focus on the FOMC minutes which are to be released tomorrow.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 08-07 )
380cst $587
180cst $670
MGO $987

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 08-07)
380cst $593
180cst $628
MGO $989

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is slowing with +$0.20. The paper market is turning bearish again with Jul 180cst -$3.20 and for 380cst -$3.25, and Aug contracts with 180cst -$3.00, 380st -$1.55. The cargo market is lagging, gaining with 180cst +$6.19, and 380cst +$5.16 and MGO +$0.78.

Singapore HSFO180 was assessed app. $6.0/mt higher, while HSFO380 price rose $5.16/mt from last Friday. Prices of 380cst marine bunkers on Asian ports slumped since H2 Jun as most of the arbitrage cargoes were believed to be of the 380cst specification. Lately weak marine fuel demand has prevented bunker prices from rising competitively in line with rising crude prices reflected on weaker cracks. Flat price market this morning showed Bal Jul 180 value 604.50, which indicate fuel oil will be continue trading on a weak note going forward. This morning markets are trading down.

380cst $594
180cst $603
MGO $910

Fujairah (delivered indications 9-07)

380cst $600
180cst $679
MGO $1050

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $592
(1.0 %) :$606
180cst: $608
(1.0 %):$ 631
MGO 0.1%S: $ 885