Oil and fuel oil hedging market update

Commentary

The API reported a surprise draw of 2.13 million barrels of U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending October 12, compared to analyst expectations that this week would see a build in crude oil inventories of 2.167 million barrels. This contradicted an analysts poll as well as a Reuters poll that put the expected figure at a smallish build in stocks. It explains the algo trade at 9.30pm UK time last night when the data was released, as well as the positive territory trading that we are seeing this morning. I'm sure the bulls in the market feel as warm and fuzzy as everyone watching the video of Prince Harry getting a hug from the child on his tour of New Zealand and Australia. Equities up, markets up, stocks down, Iran production down. I'm sure there's many a person ordering the champagne for the Christmas party as they sit on their new long positions, hoping a $100/barrel will pay for the presents for all of the step children. However, it's expected that supply shortages will become less acute and we will see a weakening of spreads. With these higher prices, it seems that Iran isn't too concerned about the cuts to their exports, as higher prices mean that income from oil sales hasn't had the impact probably intended by the Trump administration. Checkmate!. What would have really annoyed Iran and help the U.S. would be a government investment in U.S. oil infrastructure, releasing oil reserves, exemptions on oil exports for Iran, pushing OPEC to increase supply, and Trump will be on top of a cheaper gasoline market for his voters, destruction of a large part of the Middle East's income, as well as Russia, force producers to supply more to keep up with current incomes. Then, when it comes to the 2020 reelection, he'll look like a hero; and then, just before, he can put sanctions back on again. I wonder if he reads this report... maybe we should tweet it. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Oct 16)

The front crack opened at -9.05, strengthening to -8.95, before weakening to -9.10. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.00

The front-month 380 cSt barge fuel oil crack on Tuesday widened its discount to Brent crude from a two-month high in the previous session but was still considered by market participants to be trading at strong levels relative to crude.

The crack discount was trading at about minus $8.94 a barrel to Brent crude on Tuesday, down from minus $8.36 a barrel in the previous session; its narrowest discount since Aug. 15.

This came despite weaker oil prices on Tuesday which fell on evidence of higher U.S. oil production and increasing U.S. crude inventories. But reports of a fall in Iranian oil exports helped limit losses.

Economic data/events (Times are UK)

* 12pm: MBA Mortgage Applications, Oct. 12

* 1:30pm : U.S. Housing Starts, Sept.

* 3:30pm: EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report; Top Live blog starts 3:20 pm

* 7pm: Fed Meeting Minutes

* Argus Global Crude conference, 2nd day of 3

** Speakers: Trafigura Co-Head of Oil Trading Ben Luckock, Repsol Chief Economist Pedro Merino Garcia, BB Energy Global Head of Crude Trading Alessandro Liberati, OMV Supply Trading Head Vladimir Langhamer

* Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

* EARNINGS: Reliance Industries, Kinder Morgan

Singapore 380 cSt

Nov18 - 488.00 / 490.00

Dec18 - 481.75 / 483.75

Jan19 - 475.50 / 477.50

Feb19 - 469.50 / 471.50

Mar19 - 464.75 / 466.75

Apr19 - 460.00 / 462.00

Q1-19 - 469.75 / 471.75

Q2-19 - 454.75 / 456.75

Q3-19 - 435.00 / 437.50

Q4-19 - 400.00 / 402.50

CAL19 - 440.75 / 443.75

CAL20 - 371.25 / 377.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Nov18 - 495.25 / 497.25

Dec18 - 490.25 / 492.25

Jan19 - 485.50 / 487.50

Feb19 - 479.25 / 481.25

Mar19 - 474.75 / 476.75

Apr19 - 470.25 / 472.25

Q1-19 - 480.00 / 482.00

Q2-19 - 465.75 / 467.75

Q3-19 - 449.00 / 451.50

Q4-19 - 421.25 / 423.75

CAL19 - 454.50 / 457.50

CAL20 - 388.00 / 394.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Nov18 - 456.25 / 458.25

Dec18 - 450.75 / 452.75

Jan19 - 446.75 / 448.75

Feb19 - 443.00 / 445.00

Mar19 - 439.25 / 441.25

Apr19 - 435.25 / 437.25

Q1-19 - 443.00 / 445.00

Q2-19 - 431.25 / 433.25

Q3-19 - 409.50 / 412.00

Q4-19 - 371.50 / 374.00

CAL19 - 415.50 / 418.50

CAL20 - 350.50 / 356.50


		New Times Shipbuilding cuts steel on two crude tankers and delivers LNG dual-fuel vessel Chinese yard marks a busy 4 June with steel-cutting ceremonies and a tanker delivery to Maran.

		Baleària Canarias christens €128m dual-fuel fast ferry Mercedes Pinto for inter-island routes The catamaran will connect Tenerife, Gran Canaria and Fuerteventura with six daily departures.

		DNV awards AiP to HHI for LPG dual-fuel container vessel design Approval in principle granted for ship design targeting the underserved smaller container segment.

		Seascale Energy partners with Lloyd’s Register Advisory to build decarbonisation expertise The bunker firm has launched a knowledge partnership covering low-carbon fuels and maritime regulations.

		CSL takes delivery of methanol-ready Kamsarmax as fleet renewal programme advances MV CSL Kuleana departs on maiden voyage, equipped with Tier III engines.

		LNG orderbook share hits 90% as methane pathway investment holds firm LNG bunkering volumes surge and biomethane uptake grows six-fold, despite geopolitical headwinds.

		NYK to offset ship emissions with CDR credits from Loblolly project Japanese shipping group turns to biomass-based carbon sequestration to address residual maritime emissions.

		K Line orders four LNG dual-fuel car carriers for European short-sea operations Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha contracts quartet of 1,380-vehicle vessels at China Merchants Jinling Shipyard.

		Bunge seeks bunker purchaser for Rotterdam operation Agribusiness is looking for candidates with experience in marine fuel procurement.

		First vessel in NYK Stolt Tankers’ newbuild series launched in China FKAB-designed 38,000 DWT chemical tanker launched at Nantong Xiangyu Shipyard, China.

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update

By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.

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