Image: Global Risk Management

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News of the U.S. asking OPEC to increase oil production by approx. 1 mio. barrels per day to curb recent energy price increases weighed on prices yesterday along with comments from Iraq that it could exit the cutback agreement as a politician stated: "For sure, Iraq's share of exports should be unlimited... we should be able to export whatever we can via open share, we have an abundance of oil and we need to benefit from that".

Supporting prices this morning is news of additional risk of Venezuela halting some of its exports. The country could declare force majeure on some large crude oil buyers as the export terminals are overcrowded and output is declining.

The weekly oil stocks data from the American petroleum Institute (API), published last night, showed a drop in crude oil stocks of 2 mio. barrels while gasoline grew by 3.8 mio. barrels, distillates fell 871,000 barrels. Now this afternoon's oil inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) along with production data will be followed closely for confirmation/deviation of this trend. Consensus is a draw in crude oil stocks of 1.8 mio. Expect additional volatility around the publishing (16.30 CET).

Turning to economic data, yesterday saw a row of U.S. key data which basically all came out on line or better than expected, indicating that the huge economy is improving. Another set of data , trade activities, are up today, other than that no major releases. Later this week, a number of Asian key data from Japan and China will be published.