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Thu 17 May 2018 07:23

Oil at three-and-a-half-year high on inventory deviations, geopolitical uncertainty


By A/S Global Risk Management.

Michael Poulson, Global Risk Management.
Image: Global Risk Management
The weekly oil inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) yesterday showed a larger-than-expected draw in crude and gasoline inventories and completely in the opposite direction of the weekly oil stocks data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), and this supported oil prices. Brent increased by $1 following the EIA release. Markets are increasingly focusing on potential shortage of supplies as global inventories are shrinking.

EIA crude oil inventories: -1.1404M barrels (-0.763M expected) API crude oil inventories: 4.854M barrels (-1.850M previous)

In its monthly oil market report, published yesterday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for this year by 0.1 mio. barrels per day (bpd) to 99.2 mio. bpd. Supplies are currently 98 mio. bpd, but according to the IEA: "non-OPEC growth... will grow by 1.87 mio. bpd in 2018". The reason for the revision of demand growth could be the increasing oil prices, which could dampen consumption. According to the agency, global inventories have dropped below the 5-year average - which was a goal for the current oil production cut agreement - for the first time since 2014.

Turning to economic data, today's main potential market mover is the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index along with a couple of Fed member speeches. Other than that, no major releases.

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