Wed 19 Dec 2012, 12:24 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX breached first resistances this morning, pushed by small profits at the stock markets, by a stronger euro and by the bullish API data for crude and distillates. Since the trade volume is expectedly low, even smaller orders have great influence.

After oil futures slightly rose Monday morning, prices at ICE and NYMEX consolidated in their technical trade range without clear direction. Due to the technical constellation, they kept trading with a bullish tendency. Thus prices tested resistances at 108.50 dollars Brent, at 924.00 dollars G.Oil and at 87.90 dollars WTI several times. Economic data released yesterday did not move prices and the euro also traded within its technical range below the high from the previous day. Only in the late afternoon did the market moved up when the an assistent of Republican Speaker, John Boehner, announced that in face of the deadlock, both parties had worked out a "plan B", which could be voted on this very week. Traders reacted to this advance with increased risk-taking and the stock market as well as the euro and the oil market benefited and considerably gained ground. The breach of several resistances automatically triggered techncial buying orders, which boosted prices at ICE and NYMEX to their resistances at 108.95 dollars Brent, at 936.00 dollars G.Oil and 88.15 dollars WTI. Not much happened in later trading. Futures consolidated at a high level and closed at their day's highs. API data were rather mixed, reporting a draw in crude and distillate inventories and thus having a rather bullish effect. ICE Gasoil contract for January delivery settled at 928.25 dollars on Tuesday. This was This was 6.00 dollars above Monday's settlement. With some 37,700 deals the traded volume was below average.

The stochastic oscillator at ICE and NYMEX remains rather bullish since the indicator's lines are not yet converging. But gradually, the stochastic shows an overbought situation, which would technically favour profit-taking when selling signals are triggered. From a technical perspective, such signals cannot be seen at the moment. Thus analysts expect prices to continue consolidating with a strong tendency. Short-term trend indicators point upwards but still leave some scope for profit-taking.

U.S.

Nymex Access neutral: The oil market has hardly changed this morning and consolidated at a high level near yesterday's closing prices. WTI may be more volatile than usual with only a few deals since the front month contract expires tomorrow. Trading interest at ICE and NYMEX is far below average for this time of day. Market participants are waiting for the European market to open and for economic data to be released today see economic calendar The DOE data could bring a breath of fresh air to the market. Focal point will be the U.S budget talks.

US Petroleum inventories:
API: Crude oil +4.1; distillates -1.9; gasoline +4.2 million barrels vs previous week
DOE: due out tonight
Survey: Crude oil -0.9; distillates +0.9; gasoline +1.5 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 14-12)
380cst $611
180cst $668
MGO $995

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 14-12)
380cst $626
180cst $671
MGO $1010

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is slowing with WTI +$0.19 Singapore paper is turning bullish, gainig with +$2.85 for 180cst and +$2.75 for 380cst for Jan, and for Feb,180 cst +$3.20 and 380cst +$2.75. The cargo market is not yet reacting, losing with 180 cst -$0.83 380cst -$0.54 and MGO -$0.24.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $606
180 cst $617
MDO $930

Fujairah (delivered indications 19-12)

380cst $610
180cst $643
MGO $1025

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

LSFO loadings are taken up to 4 days in Antwerp. HSFO there are no spot-avails. Beside the existing contracts of the suppliers, there are no load possibilities in Antwerp or Flushing. Both influences the Rotterdam hub with regards to the loading capacity. A lot of waitingtime is reported in some of the refineries or storages. Those where waitingtime is taken to the minimum, high premiums are noted. Therefore, for prompt enquiries, a bigger premium is to be expected.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 584
(1.0 %) :$ 615
180cst: $ 622
(1.0 %):$ 653
MGO 0.1%S: $ 925

MGO  

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