Wed 12 Dec 2012, 13:22 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude oil futures showed gains Wednesday, as a report from the International Energy Agency predicted higher-than-expected oil demand. The agency, which represents major energy-consuming nations, raised its forecast for fourth quarter demand by 435,000 barrels a day, to 90.5 million barrels a day. At 1101 GMT, the front-month January Brent contract on London's ICE futures exchange was up 55 cents at $108.74 a barrel. The front-month January light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading up 39 cents at $86.29 a barrel. The market had reacted negatively to the IEA's previous report, in which it cut its forecast for demand during the fourth quarter and said the state of the global economy would limit consumption expansion in 2013.

After the losses of last week and on Monday, oil prices at ICE and NYMEX showed a technical correction, supported by technical buying signals, which arised at the RSI as well as at the Stochastic Oscillator in the course of morning trading. Towards noon, prices traded up by breaching resistances and due to the extremely positive ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in Europe. Prices retreated in the afternoon when OPEC's monthly report and the worse than expected U.S. economic data had been released. In face of the upcoming FOMC decision and the OPEC meeting today, market paritcipants remained cautious and avoided risk positions, making prices more volatile. A bullish technical tendency and a strong euro prevented further profit-taking and prices tested yesterday's high again in the evening. Given the build in petroleum inventories, API data released at 10.30 p.m. were clearly bearish but only had a short impact on prices. Small profits were given off again at night and thus futures largely remained strong.

ICE Gasoil contract for December delivery settled at 903.50 dollars on Tuesday. This was 0.25 dollars below Monday's settlement. With some 27,800 deals the traded volume was clearly below average. In the course of yesterday morning, technical buying signals were triggered at the RSI and the Stochastic oscillator. While the RSI has turned rather neutral, the stochastic is still bullish for Brent. For G.Oil lines are converging again, turning the indicator rather neutral. However, the stochastic oscillator is at the oversold level and gives off a fresh buying signal for WTI as the lines are crossing. From a technical perspective, the market is still slightly bullish but yesterday's upside diminished the bullish potential at least at ICE. In face of fundamental indicators to be released today, the technical analysis will have little influence in morning trading and analysts expect prices to consolidate at a high level.

U.S.

Nymex Access bullish: The euro remains strong and together with the Asian stock market, supports oil prices at night. The bearish API oil inventories figures had little influence so far. In addition, the uncertainty in terms of decisions to be made today by OPEC and FOMC paralyszes the market, which is why the traded volume at the electronic NYMEX is clearly below average. Traders are waiting for the European market to open, for the decisions by OPEC and FOMC and for the DOE data. More dates are on the agenda, but may be of less importance today.

API: Crude oil +4.3; distillates +2.2; gasoline +2.8 million barrels vs previous week
DOE: due out tonight
Survey: Crude oil -1.7; distillates +1.5; gasoline +2.5 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 11-12)
380cst $598
180cst $702
MGO $995

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 11-12)
380cst $624
180cst $659
MGO $1000

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude with WTI -$0.34. Singapore paper is bullish with +$3.00 for 180cst and +$2.95 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec,180 cst +$3.00 and 380cst +$3.05. With MGO contracts Nov -$0.45 and Dec -$0.30. The cargo market is bearish with 180 cst -$3.13 380cst -$3.02 and MGO -$0.46.

The Singapore markets managed to gain more than $2.5 during the morning Platts window yesterday. The delivered bunker premiums were ranging between $4.0- 5.5 above cargo prices. This morning the markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $603
180 cst $613
MDO $910

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

LSFO loadings are taken up to 4 days in Antwerp. HSFO there are no spot-avails. Beside the existing contracts of the suppliers, there are no load possibilities in Antwerp or Flushing. Both influences the Rotterdam hub with regards to the loading capacity. A lot of waitingtime is reported in some of the refineries or storages. Those where waitingtime is taken to the minimum, high premiums are noted. Therefore, for prompt enquiries, a bigger premium is to be expected.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 576
(1.0 %) :$ 616
180cst: $ 606
(1.0 %):$ 646
MGO 0.1%S: $ 908

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