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Trend

Rotterdam: $ 1 higher
Singapore: $ 9 lower
US Gulf: $ 4 higher

Will Draghi press the money button? - probably not

Later today at 13.45 CET the ECB will announce its rate decision. As with rate decision from Central banks for the past couple of years, this will highly likely be a non-event. Rate levels are already at levels where, practically, it matters little if they vary 25bpd. If the economy is not picking up speed with a 0.75% interest rate, it will not make a difference if the rate goes to 0.5% or even 0%. What market participants will monitor vigilantly is instead the 14.30 CET press conference, where chairman Draghi might hint of further money printing/bond buying. With the German High court ruling a couple of weeks ago, his firepower has been limited, so if anything he might only fire a small money missile. Expect volatility this morning as speculators adjust their bets, sideways trading thereafter until the press conference.

Clash of the titans - Obama vs. Romney

Yesterday, the first of three TV-debates between President Obama and Republican candidate Romney. Battleground: US economy.

The next debates are scheduled for 16 and 22 October, and ripple effects from the clashes could find their way towards the markets if the intensity picks up.

Recommendation

The U.S. election can bring outliers in price, which clients are advised to take advantage of. Meanwhile, the supply-demand situation is walking a tightrope, and the geopolitical nuclear wildcard in the Middle East remains. Given the scarce inventory levels, and the upcoming maintenance season for refineries, consumers of distillates are strongly advised to consider hedging for the upcoming winter.