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Crude prices at ICE and NYMEX have breached their first resistance lines this morning, even though the euro has not been able to gain a foothold and the Dax has slid below 7,400 points after some fluctuations. Oil prices are currently technically driven, as the WTI crude's support at 91.85 dollars and the G.Oil's support at 968.50 dollars have not been breached sustainably. Moreover, the lines of the stochastic indicator have meanwhile crossed at the WTI charts, giving a buying signal. The NYMEX C.Oil's second resistance can still be considered as firm, capping the rise. As to market fundamentals, the weak euro is also slightly weighs.

Oil prices edged lower at the beginning of the week, already erasing last Friday's gains on Monday morning. They were mainly impacted by forex trade. Given the Chinese central banks pessimistic comments on the economic development and the worse than forecast German Ifo Business climate index, investors increasingly preferred the US dollar. The negative performance of the euro and equities weighed on oil futures which already breached their first supports in the morning. In the course of the day, there were few breaking news and so the euro consolidated near its support at 1.29 dollar and oil futures losses were also capped. Monday evening, the Iraq declared that it had found an agreement with the Kurdish autonomous government on the profit sharing of oil revenues and that oil exports would thus be increased. This brought some new selling pressure but, along with the euro and equities, oil futures at ICE and NYMEX recovered in late trade. Still they settled with some losses on Monday.

OPEC: Global oil demand is poised to be depressed for the next 18 months while supply levels from OPEC countries are at fairly comfortable levels, the West's energy agency the IEA said. The IEA said it made no significant changes to its global oil demand outlook and forecast demand would grow at a steady rate of around 0.8 million barrels per day (bpd) or 0.9% in both 2012 and 2013. Some analysts said the oil demand outlook would probably be marked down by the IEA in the future.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 966.25 dollars on Monday. This was 8.50 dollars below Friday's settlement. With some 60,200 contracts the traded volume was above average.

The stochastic indicator is still bullish at ICE and NYMEX this morning. At the WTI crude's chart the indicator is in the oversold zone favouring an upward correction. Nevertheless, technical analysts still assess the situation as neutral today, as the resistance lines are still strong. Therefore oil prices are expected to trade sideways with a bearish tone, if their resistance lines remain firm. Analysts also note that forex trade might have a considerable impact on oil prices - as the past few days have already shown.

U.S.

Nymex access steady : Oil futures hardly changed in early Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning remaining on a high level. As there have not been any new clues at night, quotations are likely to keep track of the euro-dollar parity. The traded volume is on average. Investors will look ahead to the performance of stock and forex markets today, as well as to some economic indicators and the API's data on oil inventories published at 10.30 p.m.

Survey of US Petroleum inventories due out tonight at 22:30(API) and Wednesday at 16:30(DOE)
Crude oil +1.1; distillates +1.0; gasoline +0.3 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 24-9)

380cst $641
180cst $694
MGO $1045

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 24-9)

380cst $648
180cst $689
MGO $1055

Singapore (correct as per 14:30hrs LT-delivered indications)

Crude is stable with WTI +$0.62. Singapore paper is risingwith +$0.75 for 180cst and +$1.00 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst +$0.85 and 380cst +$1.00 with MGO contracts Oct +$0.20 and Nov +$0.22. The cargo market is retreating with 180cst -$1.96, 380cst -$0.72 and MGO -$0.16.

The Singapore Fuel Oil markets started the week slipping $2.0 -1.0 during the morning Platts window yesterday. The bunker demand was said to be slow and quiet. The delivered bunker premiums weakened to around $5.0-6.0 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps lost app. $9/mt at the front and a few dollars less at the back end of the forward curve for Singapore papers. Viscosity spread between 180cst and 380cst papers narrowed notably for the last few days trading at app.$13.50/mt at the front and slightly above $11/mt for 2013 papers. The market is trading up this morning.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $655
180 cst $670
MGO $960

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA is well supplied, with some demand picking up, although the on-going maintenance at the Flushing refinery was still affecting high sulphur availability. With short cutter stocks underpinning the markets and a heavy maintenance programme for September with two important North Sea oilfields set for a one month closure. High premiums are charged for prompt enquiries.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 636
(1.0 %) :$ 688
180cst: $ 666
(1.0 %):$ 738
MGO 0.1%S: $965