Mon 7 May 2012, 13:36 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



European stocks fell sharply this morning while yields rose on the sovereign bonds issued by Greece, France, Italy and Spain, after weekend elections in France and Greece resulted in votes against austerity, raising questions about the euro zone's ability to solve its sovereign-debt problems.

Oil futures lingered just above first support lines in early Friday trading, investors looking for direction after Thursday's losses. But the bearish market sentiment prevailed and WTI eventually fell through its first support line. Selling pressure rose when a disappointing economic indicator from the euro zone rekindled demand worries. The dollar dropped in the afternoon on a worse-than-expected US employment report, limiting oil's losses at the time, but the collapse of equity markets and the rebounding of the greenback triggered a wave of selling orders. WTI marked the biggest daily loss since the 14th of December (OPEC meeting), losing more than 5 dollars or about 5% vs the opening. The result of the elections in Greece and France applied additional pressure on the euro and on oil, the WTI hitting a low of 95.34 dollar, the brent and the gasoil dropping to 3-month lows in Asia.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 956.75 dollars on Friday. This was 31.50 dollars below Thursday's settlement. With some 45,200 contracts the traded volume was below average.

The Stochastic indicator is bearish at the oversold level this morning and its two lines are converging at the ICE charts. The RSI indicator also signals an oversold market so technical analysts bet on a modest technical upward correction. As the contracts at the ICE and the NYMEX have breached all existing support lines and left their trendchannels it is difficult to make a correct statement for today. So technical analysts expect markets to stay very volatile.

U.S.

Nymex access losing: Oil futures are edging higher in Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning on technically driven buying orders and as traders are covering their short positions that they accumulated last week. The traded volume is well above average. Due to a lack of economic indicators investors eye the performance of stock and forex markets today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 7-5)

380cst $683
180cst $717
MGO $1030

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 7-5)

380cst $676
180cst $714
MGO $990

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is dropping like a stone with WTI -$4.06 Singapore paper is gaining bearish momentum as well with -$17.50 for 180cst and -$17.85 for 380cst for May, and for June 180 cst -$17.50 and 380cst -$17.25 with MGO contracts May -$3.05 and June -$3.14. The cargo market is fully adopting the bearishness with 180cst -$13.88, 380cst -$12.87 and MGO -$3.02.

The Singapore fuel oil market extended its losses last Friday by more than -$12.5 during the morning , tracking the weak crude movement. The delivered bunker premiums inched up slightly around $7.0 above cargo prices. Market was firm last Friday on stronger bunker demand boosted by lower outright prices and also fulfilling requirements before the weekend. Bunker fuel oil swaps lost up to -$25/m at the front and a few dollars less at the backend of the forward curve. This morning markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $680
180 cst $690
MGO $940

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA markets were stirless last Friday, with crude drop considerably. The Eastern arbitrage is considered to be open. The loading and barge congestions are improving still.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 658
(1.0 %) :$ 712
180cst: $ 660
(1.0 %):$ 718
MGO 0.1%S: $955

MGO  

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