Thu 22 Mar 2012, 12:02 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



After yesterday's losses at ICE during late trade, oil futures have traded lower during Thursday morning trade, breaching first supports. Disappointing economic indicators from Asia resp. Europe and technical selling impulsions are said to have caused these losses. In early trading hours market sentiment was still slightly optimistic, as the German Ministry of Finances spoke of an economic recovery and high tax revenues. In the course of the morning optimism on the financial market ebbed. The preliminary Chinese PMI published by the HSBSC, having showed a reading of 49.6 points in February, fell to 48.1 points in March. Adding to this, there has been a series of worse than expected European economic data.

Oil futures traded sideways in a narrow range on Wednesday morning but retreated in the early afternoon testing their supports at 1,026.25 dollars (G.Oil), 123.75 dollars (Brent) and 106.15 dollars WTI. The dollar which was then advancing, Saudi Arabia's announcement that it would raise its output and Libya's high crude exports prompted investors at ICE and NYMEX to take some profit. Ahead of the DOE's data on US oil inventories investors still avoided short-positions, however. Thus supports remained strong. The DOE's data came out mixed, so oil futures diverged in the course of late afternoon- and evening-trade. Crude oil futures at ICE and NYMEX, the WTI crude in particular, edged higher due to the unexpected draws in stocks. Product prices, however, retreated against the backdrop of a lower US demand and the advancing dollar. In late trade product futures even breached first supports.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at at 1,026.75 dollars on Wednesday. This was -5.25 dollars below Tuesday's settlement. With some 59,700 contracts the traded volume was above average.

The selling signals the stochastic indicator provided yesterday still remain this morning and are interpreted bearish, see also technical analysis. After first supports have been breached at ICE, more downward potential has been created. Gasoil is currently testing a long term support at 1,022.50 dollars which remained strong as of now. Should this line be breached sustainably in the course of the morning, technical analysts expect more selling orders to be triggered. In this case, the Brent might even see a correction down to 122.45 dollars - if the dollar is able to keep track of yesterday's gains.

U.S.

Nymex acces losing. Oil futures partly traded significantly lower in Asian trading hours and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. After having breached first supports during yesterday's evening trade and the bearish impulsions provided by Chinese economic indicators oil futures have retreated. The traded volume is slightly above average. Investors now closely watch the development at European stock exchanges, impulsions from forex markets and today's economic indicators see economic calendar.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 21-3)

380cst $727
180cst $762
MGO $1063

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 21-3)

380cst $729
180cst $764
MGO $1066

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is losing with WTI -$0.63 Singapore paper is losing somewhat as well with -$4.75 for 180cst and -$3.95 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst -$4.75 and 380cst -$3.95 with MGO contracts Apr -$1.15 and May -$1.16. The cargo market is in line with crude and paper with 180cst -$2.00, 380cst -$0.69 and MGO -$0.21.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were down around -$1.0 to -$2.0 Yesterday tracking crude movement. The delivered bunker premiums remain around $3.0 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps lost nearly $4/mt at the backend and app.$2/mt at the front of the forward curve. This morning markets are trading down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $733
180 cst $743
MGO $1020

Fujairah (delivered indications 22-3)

380cst $737
180cst $759
MGO $1049

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Yesterday the ARA markets were easing still, with weak demand. Slightly more lsfo is becoming available, and the tightness should be less pressing at the end of this week.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 696
(1.0 %) :$ 754
180cst: $ 720
(1.0 %):$ 782
MGO 0.1%S: $1010

MGO  

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