The pipeline of renewable fuel projects has expanded quickly over the past three years and, in theory, now offers enough potential supply to meet shipping’s needs, according to Vitalii Protasov, CEO at GENA Solutions Oy.

At the same time, Protasov noted that only a limited share of the projects currently under development is expected to enter operation within the next five years. How much of that supply ultimately becomes available will depend heavily on whether shipping companies are prepared to commit to long-term offtake agreements despite continued regulatory uncertainty, he added.

The comments were made during a presentation at the Nordic-Baltic Maritime Forum in Helsinki on the outlook for supply and demand for new renewable fuels.

GENA Solutions' CEO noted that shipping is not the only sector competing for these fuels, with aviation, road transport, energy, fertilisers, chemicals and other industries all seeking access to the same supply base.

Protasov said bunker fuel security and resilience will depend on diversification both by product and by region, including maintaining a reasonable share of domestic supply.

He added that discussions at the conference suggested shipowners and charterers see value in keeping multiple fuel options open as a way of preparing for future rules, which remain uncertain.

Stable and predictable regulation will be essential if the industry is to unlock investment in decarbonisation, Protasov explained. He argued that Europe’s current support system for renewable fuel projects is falling short and that EU ETS payments made by shipping should be directed towards the sector’s own decarbonisation, including new renewable fuel production capacity in Europe.

The duration of offtake agreements was highlighted as a major obstacle, with bunker buyers tending to favour shorter contracts while project developers seek longer-term commitments.

GENA Solutions' CEO also said that the meaning of ammonia-ready or methanol-ready varies widely in practice, and that in many cases such readiness exists only on paper.

The Nordic-Baltic region, he added, forms part of the wider global pipeline of renewable fuel projects now under development.