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Renewed optimism that Greece might avoid a disorderly default is giving a positive impulse into the oil markets. A default of Greece may lead to a breakup of the euro zone which could cause unpredictable economic damage. Given the supply shortfalls from the Sudan which probably cannot be resumed on the short run, and the conflict regarding the Iran, oil prices' tendency remains steady. Even if the halt of exports to Great Britain and France is not yet decisively supporting prices, there are growing worries among investors that Iran may soon extend its embargo to other EU countries. Greece, Spain and Italy draw from Iranian oil to a great extent.

Oil futures began the day lingering on their high level in electronic trading before traders started taking profit, selling long positions ahead of the long U.S. weekend. Prices fell through first short-term support lines at 1,003.75 dollars (gasoil) and 119.00 dollars (brent) before selling pressured eased near second supports. In view of a lack of fundamental momentum and a consolidating dollar, trade remained very technically driven. The WTI crude traded higher Friday as traders' reduced their bets on the brent-WTI spread on optimism that euro-zone finance ministers will come to an agreement on the bailout package for Greece. The ministers are due to meet today in Brussels to close the deal. The risk-sensitive euro gained ground, boosting oil prices to 9-month highs in early trading hours this morning amid optimism over China's economic growth after the People's Bank of China eased monetary policy over the weekend.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 1,002.50 dollars on Friday. This was 1.50 dollars below Thursday's settlement. With some 66,900 contracts the traded volume was above average.

The Stochastic oscillator at the Brent and the WTI chart gives no clear signals this morning but is still slightly bullish at the gasoil chart and for the NYMEX H.Oil contract. Given the strong uptrend channels technical analysts are rather bullish and a technical downward correction is not in sight. Even though markets are significantly overbought analysts see resistance lines being hit in a rather thin trade due to the US holiday; Presidents’ Day.

U.S.

Nymex acces gaining. Oil futures rose in Asian trading hours and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning as the dollar fell on a rising risk sentiment on expectations that Greece will secure a second bailout. As NYMEX floor trade will be closed today for President's Day investors consolidated risky positions at the electronic Globex platform. The traded volume is well above average, but investors' focus is already set on the new WTI front month April, the contract for March delivery expiring Tuesday night. Market participants will eye forex markets and the decision of EU ministers on a greek bailout today. There are no important economic indicators on the agenda.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 17-2)

380cst $710
180cst $751
MGO $1053

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 17-2)

380cst $712
180cst $753
MGO $1056

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is gaining bullish momentum with WTI +$2.00 Singapore paper is ignoring the bullishness, turning bearish with -$2.30 for 180cst and -$2.25 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180 cst -$2.30 and 380cst -$2.25 with MGO Mar contracts at -$0.15 and for Apr -$0.15. The cargo market is tracking crude gaining with 180cst +$7.41, 380cst +$7.97 and MGO +$1.09.

The Singapore fuel oil markets rebounded more than $7.5 during the morning window last Friday. The Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a slight build of +0.21 mbbl to 19.69 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums slipped to around $10.5 above cargo prices as demand was dampened by the higher outright prices. Bunker fuel oil prices lost in a range of $1-2/mt along the curve for Singapore papers. This morning markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $741
180 cst $751
MGO $1013

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA saw restrained trading activity Friday on mixed expectations about crude oil prices, which softened day-on-day, and bearish expectations about the 3.5% FOB Rotterdam barge market, as the arbitrage to Singapore was considered closed. There is still tight availability for prompt material. High premiums for prompt product are seen. Antwerp is still experiencing some low sulfur fuel oil tightness due to shortages at local refineries.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 692
(1.0 %) :$ 718
180cst: $ 713
(1.0 %):$ 741
MGO 0.1%S: $1002