Mon 13 Feb 2012, 15:03 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude oil prices were up this morning, hitting six-month highs as demand sensitive assets were boosted after Greece approved an austerity bill to secure a second bailout. Equities, commodities and the euro all rose as the Greek parliament approved the bill, lifting the threat of a default that would have shocked the markets. Round midday, crude's technical indicators are hinting at a consolidation, the stochastic indicator for the distillates gives some bearish signals after its lines have crossed. Product contracts have therefore edged lower around noon, after their first resistance lines have proved strong. New important selling orders are not expected, however, before prices have fallen below yesterday's lows. Furthermore, temperatures in Western Europe are expected to edge higher again soon, putting some additional pressure on prices. Apart from this, there is no important news as of now.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX lost ground in electronic morning trading, breaching first support lines as market participants took profit before the weekend. Uncertainty about Greece, disappointing US and Chinese indicators, the IEA's bearish energy outlook, the strong US dollar and the overbought market situation applied additional pressure on the oil complex. Yet downside was limited as Iran and Sudan kept giving bullish signals and hopes that the Greek parliament would approve the austerity plan lent support. So the Brent and the WTI crude rose later in the day but still settled lower in the end.

OPEC: The new sanctions on Iran make an impact on the country's ability to export its oil. The IEA said in a report earlier Friday that the measures are "causing marine insurers and shipowners to be doubly cautious" and "will likely complicate crude shipments" from Iran. AP Moller Maersk AS said Friday it stopped taking new orders to transport Iranian crude as a European oil embargo is already complicating Tehran's oil sailings even before it comes into force, adding existing commitments would be honored.

ICE Gasoil contract for February delivery settled at 996.75 dollars on Friday, unchanged vs Thursday's settlement. With some 101,900 contracts the traded volume was well above average.

The two lines of the Stochastic oscillator have converged at the overbought level at ICE and NYMEX charts, signalling a downward correction. But Friday's profit taking has taken some pressure off the market, so technical analysts who expect prices to consolidate on a high level as long as Friday's lows are not breached.

U.S.

Nymex acces gaining. Oil futures are rising in Asian trading hours and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning, supported by gains in Asian equities and the approval of the austerity plan by Greek lawmakers. The traded volume is slightly above average. Due to a lack of economic indicators today, market participants will eye forex markets for direction.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 10-2)

380cst $712
180cst $752
MGO $1058

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 10-2)

380cst $714
180cst $754
MGO $1061

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bullish still with WTI +$0.45 Singapore paper is slowing, but gaining still with +$0.25 for 180cst and +$0.50 for 380cst for Feb, and for Mar 180 cst +$0.25 and 380cst +$0.50 with MGO Feb contracts at +$0.30 and for Mar +$0.31. The cargo market is mixed with 180cst +$2.57, 380cst -$1.15 and MGO +$0.02.

The Singapore fuel oil markets closed the week ranging from -$1.0 to +$2.50 during the morning last Friday. The market remains well supplied and sellers becoming more aggressive. The delivered bunker premiums eased marginally to around $14.5 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps closed the week with losses ranging $4.0- 5.0/mt along the curve with Singapore papers slightly weaker than Rotterdam barges. This morning both markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $742
180 cst $751
MGO $998

Fujairah (delivered indications 13-2)

380cst $732
180cst $752
MGO $1045

Avails issue are sustaining the market.

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

In Northwest Europe bunker fuel prices were up on stronger outright oil prices and bullish sentiment on the 3.5% hsfo barge market, with another VLCC fixture, and cold weather conditions underpinning the market. High Chinese refinery demand is supporting the arbitrage to Singapore.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 707
(1.0 %) :$ 730
180cst: $ 722
(1.0 %):$ 759
MGO 0.1%S: $990


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