Fri 11 Nov 2011, 13:08 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil prices climbed in the early morning, with ICE Gasoil and Brent as well as NYMEX C.Oil breaching first technical resistances. This triggered further buying orders, which pushed the oil complex to new highs. Technical analysts consider the mark of 115,00 dollars for the Brent and the mark of 99,85 dollars for the WTI Crude as important resistance lines. If these are breached, further buying impetus will be created.

Oil prices were widely following the euro and equities up and down in a very volatile market yesterday, supported in the afternoon by better-than-expected US employment data, the appointment of Greek fiscal expert Lucas Papademos as prime minister of the interim cabinet and the ECB's buying of Italian bonds to bring down interest rates. The IEA's monthly energy outlook was mixed, falling OECD oil reserves counteracting the forecast of a decline in demand. But eventually the bullish sentiment prevailed at ICE and NYMEX and first short-term resistance lines were breached.

ICE Gasoil contract for December delivery settled at 978.75 dollars on Thursday. This was 4.25 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. With some 127,600 contracts the traded volume was well above average.

The Stochastic oscillator at the ICE charts is bearish this morning, the one at the gasoil chart has not even left the overbought level. As for the NYMEX contracts, WTI crude is likely to consolidate with risks skewed to the upside as its Stochastic might give a short-term buying signal today after the contract hit a 3-month high of 98.35 dollars Thursday. Its uptrend having proved strong in the past, the upper limit is seen curbing today's trade margin, forcing oil prices to consolidate within their technical range today (between 112.10 and 115.00 dollars for the brent and 96.00 and 99.85 dollars for NYMEX crude. The WTI is supported at 96.00 dollars today, its first resistance is seen at 98.35 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 114.15 dollars, its first support is at 112.10 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access trading gaining: Oil prices are edging higher in Asian trading hours and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning, extending Thursday's gains as the positive market sentiment persists. Asian equities regained some of the ground lost yesterday. Today, there is only one important USindicator on the agenda (Michiganconsumer sentiment). The traded volume is about on average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 10-11)

380cst $681
180cst $731
MGO $1008

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 10-11)

380cst $683
180cst $733
MGO $1011

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bouncing back up, surging with WTI +$2.27. Singapore paper is turning as well, but is less bullish with +$6.50 for 180cst and +$7.25 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst +$11.50 and 380cst +$9.95 with MGO Nov contracts at +$1.90 and for Dec at +$2.16. The cargo market starting to turn as well, gaining with 180cst +$9.67, 380cst +$10.13 and MGO +$2.04.

The Singapore fuel oil markets approx -$1.0/mt during the Platts window yesterday. Delivered bunker premium slipped to around $14.0/mt above the cargo prices as the high outright prices dampened overall bunker demand. Singapore bunker prices have also been more expensive than surrounding ports in Asia. Bunker fuel swaps were assessed mixed. Front month papers lost a little both in Singapore and Rotterdam while forward prices managed to post a small loss in both markets. East / west spread remains rather broad trading around $42 for December. Viscosity spread between 180cst and 380cst papers broadened notably for the last few days trading above $10/mt in the front and above $12 for 2012 papers. Markets are trading lower this morning.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $705
180 cst $710
MGO $960

Fujairah (delivered indications 11-11)

380cst $715
180cst $730
MGO $1055

Avails issues are sustaining the market.

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The Northwest European market bunker market softened Yesterday, tracking week fuel oil demand. Rotterdam and Antwerp remain very tight and experience ongoing HSFO shortages. Tight HSFO supplies on a recent VLCC loading for Singapore continued to trigger operational delays at loading installations in Rotterdam. In the MOC 1% was traded between $ 679-680 with hs $ 651-653 levels traded.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 666
(1.0 %) :$ 696
180cst: $ 692
(1.0 %):$ 716
MGO 0.1%S: $ 995

MGO  

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